THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 1981
MID-YEAR SURVEY OF ECONOMIC PROSPECTS 1981
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THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT TODAY (THURSDAY) PUBLISHED THE RESULTS OF A SURVEY CONDUCTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR TO ASCERTAIN THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR FROM A SAMPLE OF SOME 500 PROMINENT MANUFACTURERS.
SURVEYS OF ECONOMIC PROSPECTS ARE CONDUCTED TWICE A YEAR BY THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT, LARGELY FOR THE PURPOSE OF PROVIDING THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY WITH ORGANISED FEEDBACK FROM INDUSTRY, AS ONE OF MANY SOURCES OF INFORMATION FOR ASSESSING THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK OF THE ECONOMY.
THE MID-YEAR SURVEY WAS DESIGNED TO REVIEW THE OPINIONS OF THOSE MANUFACTURERS WHO WERE COVERED IN A PRECEDING SURVEY CONDUCTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR ON EXPORT ORDERS AND OTHER RELATED BUSINESS TOP ICS.
MANUFACTURERS INCLUDED IN THE SURVEY EXPECTED THE VOLUME OF THE IR EXPORT ORDERS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR TO BE TWO PER CENT MORE THAN IN THE SECOND HALF OF LAST YEAR. THIS IS LOWER THAN WAS IMPLIED IN THE REVISED FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF SEVEN PER CENT IN REAL TERMS FOR DOMESTIC EXPORTS FOR THE YEAR AS A WHOLE GIVEN BY THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY IN HIS MID-YEAR ECONOMIC REVIEW SPEECH.
WHILE OPINIONS NECESSARILY DIFFER DEPENDING ON THE SOURCE OF INFORMATION, EXPERIENCE OF SIMILAR SURVEYS CONDUCTED IN THE PAST SHOWS THAT MANUFACTURERS TEND TO BE RATHER CONSERVATIVE ABOUT THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE, AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR MANUFACTURERS EXPECTED THE VOLUME OF EXPORT ORDERS IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1981 TO BE TWO PER CENT HIGHER THAN IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1980, BUT THE ACTUAL GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS TURNED OUT TO BE SIX PER CENT. ALLOWING FOR THIS, THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE MANUFACTURERS IN THE MID-YEAR SURVEY WERE BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE MANUFACTURERS SURVEYED EXPECTED THAT BUSINESS PROSPECTS FOR THE MONTHS AHEAD MIGHT BE BETTER IN THE UNITED STATES, UNITED KINGDOM AND JAPAN THAN IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY. THEY ALSO EXPECTED THAT THE PLASTICS, ELECTRONICS, FOOD AND PRINTING INDUSTRIES WOULD FARE BETTER THAN THE WATCHES AND CLOCKS, TEXTILES AND METAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRIES,
IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE VOLUME OF ORDERS, EMPLOYMENT IN THE FACTORIES SURVEYED WAS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY TWO PER CENT IN THE SECOND HALF OF 1981 COMPARED WITH THE SECOND HALF OF 1980. CORRESPONDINGLY, THE WAGE RATES OF OPERATIVES WERE EXPECTED TO RISE BY 10 PER CENT, THE PRICE OF MATERIAL INPUTS BY SEVEN PER CENT, AND THE PRICES OF PRODUCTS FOR EXPORTS BY FIVE PER CENT.
FIFTY-SIX PER CENT OF THE MANUFACTURERS COVERED BY THE SURVEY EXPECTED THEIR PROFIT MARGINS TO BE NARROWER AS A RESULT OF THESE PRICE TRENDS, BUT 17 PER CENT OF THEM LOOKED FORWARD TO BETTER PROF IT MARGINS IN THE COMING MONTHS.
MOST MANUFACTURERS