WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 1981
12
HE SAID IF THE RECOVERY IN THE U.S. ECONOMY WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A REBUILDING OF INVENTOR IES -- THIS WAS POSSIBLE IN VIEW OF THE IR DEPLETION IN THE SECOND HALF OF 1980, PARTICULARLY IF INTEREST RATES DECLINE - THE RECOVERY COULD WELL BE AS SHARP AS THE SLOW DOWN HONG KONG HAS JUST EXPERIENCED.
HIS FORECAST FOR THE GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO U.S.A. FOR 1981 IS FIVE PER CENT AGAINST THE ACHIEVED GROWTH RATE IN 1980 OF 10 PER CENT.
ON THE WEST GERMAN MARKET, HE FORECAST OUR DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THAT COUNTRY TO GROW IN 1981 BY SIX PER CENT, ROUGHLY THE SAME AS THE ACHIEVED GROWTH RATE IN 1980.
AS REGARDS THE UNITED KINGDOM WHICH TOOK 10 PER CENT OF OUR DOMESTIC EXPORTS BY VALUE IN 1980, THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR A GROWTH RATE OF THE GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (GDP) OF MINUS TWO PER CENT IN 1981 AS IN 1980. SIR PHILIP EXPECTED THE DEPRECIATION OF THE HONG KONG DOLLAR AGAINST STERLING OF ABOUT 10 PER CENT DURING 1980 TO FACILITATE SOME GROWTH IN DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THIS MARKET IN 1981. HIS FORECAST FOR THE GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO UK IN 1981 IS THREE PER CENT, AN IMPROVEMENT OVER 1980 WHEN VIRTUALLY NO GROWTH WAS RECORDED.
REGARDING THE REST OF THE WORLD WHICH TOOK 46 PER CENT OF OUR DOMESTIC EXPORTS BY VALUE IN 1980, THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY SAID OUR PROSPECTS WERE RATHER MORE PROMISING, PARTICULARLY IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE EAST ASIAN REGION BECAUSE HE EXPECTED THE REGION'S GROWTH MOMENTUM IN 1981 WOULD BE MAINTAINED. HIS FORECAST FOR THE GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE REST OF THE WORLD IN 1981 IS NINE PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE ACHIEVED GROWTH RATE IN 1980 OF 15 PER CENT.
FS OPTS NOT TO RAISE TAXES
***
THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY HAS NO INTENTION OF INCREASING DIRECT AND INDIRECT TAXES TO BALANCE TAX CONCESSIONS, THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL WAS TOLD THIS (WEDNESDAY) AFTERNOON.
THE HON SIR PHILIP HADDON-CAVE, PRESENTING HIS BUDGET REPORT, SAID HE DID NOT INTEND TO INVOKE OPTIONS AVAILABLE NOW BECAUSE OF THE PRESENT STATE OF PUBLIC FINANCES, EVEN THOUGH IT WOULD BE JUSTIFIED ON A MACRO-ECONOMIC POLICY GROUND TO DO SO.
SPEAKING ON GOVERNMENT'S PUBLIC UTILITY-TYPE UNDERTAKINGS, SIR PHILIP SAID THE POSTMASTER-GENERAL INTENDED DURING THE COMING YEAR TO ADJUST POSTAL CHARGES TO MEET INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS AND TO RATIONALISE PART OF THE SYSTEM OF POSTAL RATES AND FEES.
+A FEW SERVICES WILL BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE AND A FEW SLIGHTLY CHEAPER,+ HE EXPLAINED.
SIR PHILIP SAID THE KOWLOON-CANTON RAILWAY AND WATERWORKS UNDERTAKINGS WERE MAKING LOSSES AND OVER THE NEXT FOUR YEARS, 1981-82 TO 1984-85, THE POSITION OF EACH WOULD BECOME WORSE, PARTICULARLY AS FURTHER SUBSTANTIAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT WAS BEING MADE IN BOTH UNDERTAKINGS.
/+1 FEAR