WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 1981
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(C) GROSS DOMESTIC FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION: TO GROW BY 13
PER CENT, THE SAME AS THE ACHIEVED GROWTH RATE IN 1980, THE GROWTH RATE OF INVESTMENT IN PLANT AND MACHINERY IN 1981 IS 16 PER CENT, A SLOW DOWN FROM THE ACHIEVED GROWTH RATE IN 1980 OF 18.7 PER CENT. GROWTH RATE OF TOTAL EXPENDITURE ON BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION IN 1981 IS 7 PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE ACHIEVED RATE IN 1980 OF 2 PER CENT. (EXPENDITURE BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR ON BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION TO GROW BY 5 PER CENT WHILE THAT BY THE PUBLIC SECTOR TO GROW BY 8 PER CENT).
(D)
(E)
(F)
TOTAL EXPORTS OF GOODS. THE GROWTH RATE IN 1981 IS 12 PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE ACHIEVED RATE OF 17.7 PER CENT.
IMPORTS OF GOODS THE GROWTH RATE IS 13 PER CENT AGAINST THE ACHIEVED RATE OF 18.6 PER CENT IN 1980.
NET EXPORTS OF SERVICES: TO GROW BY 3 PER CENT IN 1981 COMPARED WITH THE ACHIEVED RATE OF MINUS 2.5 PER CENT.
(G) STOCKS: A SMALL ACCRETION OF STOCKS IN 1981 AS IN 1980.
GLOOMY PREDICTIONS NOT BORNE OUT BY BUDGET FORECAST ***
THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY TODAY FORECAST AN EIGHT PER CENT GROWTH IN HONG KONG'S ECONOMY AND SAID THE GLOOMY PREDICTIONS OF IHMINENT DISASTER, SO FASHIONABLE RECENTLY IN SOME QUARTERS, ARE SIMPLY NOT BORNE OUT BY HIS FORECAST.
IN HIS BUDGET SPEECH, HE SAID THE EIGHT PER CENT GROWTH COMPARED FAVOURABLY WITH THE TREND GROWTH RATE ACHIEVED BY OUR ECONOMY IN ALMOST ANY OTHER PERIOD ONE CHOSE TO SELECT DURING THE PAST 15 YEARS.
FURTHERMORE, HE SAID, SHOULD THE FORECAST BE BORNE OUT, IT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIR MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH EXPLAINED AS FOLLOWS
FIRST, HE PREDICTED THAT THE GROWTH RATE OF FINAL TOTAL DEMAND, AT EIGHT PER CENT, WILL BE THE SAME AS THE GROWTH RATE OF GDP WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SUBSTANTIAL IMBALANCE BETWEEN AGGREGATE DEMAND AND SUPPLY.
SECONDLY, THE GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC DEMAND, AT 10 PER CENT, WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS AT SEVEN PER CENT IMPLYING A CONTINUATION OF THE SHIFT IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF LABOUR AWAY FROM THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR WHICH STARTED IN THE SECOND HALF OF 1980.
THIRDLY, THE GROWTH RATE OF PUBLIC SECTOR DEMAND, AT 14 PER CENT, WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE GROWTH RATE OF PRIVATE SECTOR DEMAND AT NINE PER CENT. SO THE PUBLIC SECTOR WILL COMMAND A LARGER SHARE OF AVAILABLE RESOURCES IN THE ECONOMY, A REVERSE OF THE SITUATION IN 1980.
/FOURTHLY