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THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 1981
QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY
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JANUARY 1981
THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT TODAY (THURSDAY) RELEASED THE RESULTS OF THE QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY CONDUCTED IN JANUARY 1981.
ABOUT 850 FIRMS FROM VARIOUS INDUSTRIES AND BUSINESSES, FORMING A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ECONOMIC COMMUNITY, WERE ASKED ABOUT THE IR BUSINESS EXPERIENCE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1980, AND THE IR BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1981.
RESULTS OF THE SURVEY INDICATE THAT BUSINESS EXPERIENCE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1980 WAS QUITE DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MANUFACTURING AND NON-MANUFACTURING SECTORS. MOST MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES REPORTED SOME DETERIORATION IN THE GENERAL BUSINESS SITUATION IN THE FOURTH QUARTER AS COMPARED WITH THE THIRD QUARTER, ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF DETERIORATION WAS PROBABLY LESS SERIOUS THAN HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN EXPECTED. IN CONTRAST, SERVICES SECTORS REPORTED SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE GENERAL BUSINESS SITUATION.
AS REGARDS THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1981, FIRMS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE +FOOD, BEVERAGE, TOBACCO+ INDUSTRY, GENERALLY EXPECT FURTHER DETERIORATION IN THE GENERAL BUSINESS SITUATION BUT THIS MAY PARTLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO SEASONAL EFFECTS. FIRMS IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR AND OTHER SERVICES SECTORS, HOWEVER, LOOK FORWARD TO IMPROVEMENTS. CONSIDERING THE RESULTS OF THE PRESENT SURVEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THOSE OF PREVIOUS SURVEYS, IT CAN BE CONCLUDED THAT BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1981 IS STRONG IN THE NON-MANUFACTURING SECTORS BUT RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE MANUFACTURING
SECTOR.
WITHIN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR, FIRMS IN THE +FOOD, BEVERAGE, TOBACCO+ INDUSTRY SEEMED TO HAVE DONE QUITE WELL IN THE FOURTH QUARTER AND THEY EXPECT FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN THE BUSINESS SITUATION IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1981. THE WATCHES AND CLOCKS+ INDUSTRY ALSO HAD A FAIRLY GOOD FOURTH QUARTER BUT FIRMS IN THE INDUSTRY PREDICT SOME DETERIORATION IN THE FIRST QUARTER. FIRMS IN THE +TEXTILES+, +PRINTING+, +PLASTICS+, +FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS+, +ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, APPLIANCES AND SUPPLIES+ AND +ELECTRONICS+ INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCED SOME DECLINE IN BUSINESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1980 AND EXPECT FURTHER DECLINE IN THE COMING QUARTER. WITH REFERENCE TO RESULTS OF PREVIOUS SURVEYS, IT SEEMS THAT THE EXPECTED DECLINE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1981 FOR THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IS PARTLY DUE TO SEASONAL EFFECTS. COMPARING RESULTS OF THIS SURVEY WITH THOSE OF THE SURVEY THIS TIME LAST YEAR, IT MAY BE INFERRED THAT THE GENERAL BUSINESS SITUATION IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1981 IS ONLY MARGINALLY WORSE THAN THAT IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF LAST YEAR. +PLASTICS+, +ELECTRONICS+ AND +ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, APPLIANCES AND SUPPLIES ARE INDUSTRIES IN WHICH FIRMS SEEM TO BE MORE DEFINITE THAT THEY ARE IN A LESS FAVOURABLE POSITION THAN AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR.
FIRMS IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR HAD PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. IMPROVEMENT WAS INDEED REPORTED, BUT WAS NOT AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED, RESPONDENTS IN THE +WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE, RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS+ SECTOR REPORTED IMPROVED BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. THE WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE PREDICTS A STABLE BUSINESS SITUATION IN THE COMING QUARTER, BUT RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS EXPECT DETERIORATIONS, POSSIBLY A RELECTION OF SEASONAL EFFECTS.
/THE DEPARTMENT