2
EDNESDAY, NOVEMBER
1980
IT IS THE PRODUCT OF TWO THINGS, A MAGNIFICENT PEOPLE WITH THE WILL TO SURVIVE THROUGH WORK, AND A MAGNIFICENT HARBOUR IN WHICH THERE ARE ABOUT 200 SHIPS AT ANCHOR AT ANY ONE DAY, AS CONRAD WROTE OF ENGLAND IT IS A PLACE WHERE MEN AND SEA INTERPENETRATE'
IT IS NOT SURPRISING THEREFORE THAT IT IS THE HOME OF OWNERS OF OVER 50 MILLION TONS DEADWEIGHT OF SHIPPING, AND THAT THE IR VOICES ARE INCREASINGLY HEARD IN INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING AFFAIRS. THEY ARE TYPICAL PRODUCTS OF THE MODERN FAR EAST OF WHICH HONG KONG IS THE FOCAL POINT.
SOME OF YOU KNOW THE FAR EAST, TO OTHERS IT MAY SEEM FAR OFF AND IMPLAUSIBLE, BUT ITS MAIN FEATURE NOW IS CHANGE, FOR THE FAR EAST HAS CHANGED AND CHANGED QUICKLY, AND ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT, IF LEAST ADVERTISED, DEVELOPMENTS HAS BEEN THE COMPARATIVE STABILITY IT HAS ACHIEVED -- A STABILITY WHICH NO-ONE WOULD HAVE FORECAST 15 YEARS AGO, IT IS HARD TO REMEMBER THAT IT WAS SOUTH EAST ASIA FOR WHICH THE SO-CALLED DOMINO THEORY WAS EVOLVED, THE THEORY THAT IF ONE COUNTRY FELL TO COMMUNISM, ONE AFTER ANOTHER WOULD ALSO FALL RIGHT THROUGH THAILAND AND THE MALAYAN ARCHIPELAGO, BUT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED, NOBODY FORESAW THE VIGOUR AND SUCCESS AND SELF-RELIANCE OF SUCH STATES AS MALAYSIA, INDONESIA, THE PHILIPPINES AND THAILAND.
OF COURSE VIETNAM HAS BEEN A DESTABILISING INFLUENCE, BOTH IN ITSELF, AND AS A SOVIET SATELLITE, AND A MEMBER OF COMECON, BUT EVEN IF THERE IS NO SOLUTION IN SIGHT TO VIETNAMESE PRESENT IN KAMPUCHEA, THERE ARE RESTRAINTS ON VIETNAM, HER OWN CRYING NEED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE AND ECONOMIC REHABILITATION, AND OF COURSE THE ENORMOUS AND SOBERING PRESENCE OF CHINA ON HER NORTHERN FRONTIER THESE ARE POTENT SAFEGUARDS, I SEE NO SIGN OF THE DOMINOES STARTING TO FALL.
STABILITY WAS IN ANY CASE EMERGING AS A RESULT OF THE EFFORT OF INDIVIDUAL STATES THEMSELVES, BUT IN RECENT YEARS, OF ALL THE STABILISING FACTORS IN THE AREA, I WOULD UNHESITATINGLY NAME AS THE MOST IMPORTANT THE NEW SITUATION OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA, ITS NEW RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES, JAPAN, AND EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, AND ALSO WITH THE COUNTRIES OF SOUTH EAST ASIA, LIFTED A CLOUD OF UNCERTAINTY WHICH HUNG OVER EAST ASIA FOR SO LONG, AND PERSONALITY AND POLICY CHANGES HAVE REINFORCED CHINA'S CONSTRUCTIVE INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
IDEOLOGY HAS GIVEN WAY TO COMMONSENSE, TO AN APPROACH THAT IS PRAGMATIC AND TO US COMPREHENSIBLE. AS PRACTICAL PEOPLE WE ALL WARM TO A CHINESE LEADER WHO SAYS HE DOES NOT MIND WHETHER A CAT IS BLACK OR WHITE, SO LONG AS IT CATCHES MICE.