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WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 1980
DOMESTIC EXPORTS IN 1980 TO GROW BY SEVEN PER CENT
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HONG KONG'S DOMESTIC EXPORTS IN 1980 IS FORECAST TO GROW BY SEVEN PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE ACHIEVED GROWTH RATE OF 16.6 PER CENT IN 1979, THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY, THE HON SIR PHILIP HADDON-CAVE, SAID TODAY.
IN HIS BUDGET SPEECH IN THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL TODAY, SIR PHILIP PREDICTED A NINE PER CENT GROWTH RATE IN THE TOTAL ÉXPORTS OF GOODS, INCLUDING RE-EXPORTS, IN 1980 COMPARED WITH THE ACHIEVED GROWTH RATE OF 19.5 PER CENT IN 1979.
ON RE-EXPORTS, HE SAID THE GROWTH RATE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE RAPID AT 14 PER CENT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPANSION IN CHINA'S INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND HONG KONG'S ROLE AS AN ENTREPOT FACILITATING THIS EXPANSION. IN 1979, RE-EXPORTS ACHIEVED AN ACTUAL GROWTH RATE OF 29 PER CENT.
HE ALSO FORECAST THAT IMPORTS WOULD GROW BY 11 PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE ACHIEVED GROWTH RATE OF 15.6 PER CENT IN 1979.
HE SAID THE VISIBLE TRADE GAP IN 1980 WOULD WIDEN TO ABOUT 14 PER CENT FROM 12.1 PER CENT IN 1979, BUT THE VISIBLE TRADE DEFICIT IMPLIED SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY THE SURPLUS ON THE
INVISIBLE TRADE ACCOUNT.
+AT 14 PER CENT, THE VISIBLE TRADE GAP IS WITHIN THE HISTORICAL RANGE OF 10 PER CENT TO 16 PER CENT IN THE 1970S,+ HE SAID.
ON HONG KONG'S DOMESTIC EXPORTS BY MARKETS, SIR PHILIP SAID HE EXPECTED THAT THE GROWTH RATE OF OUR DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY RAPID IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1980, BUT WOULD SLOW DOWN IN THE SECOND HALF. HE FORECAST THAT THE GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE US FOR THE YEAR AS A WHOLE WOULD BE FOUR PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE ACHIEVED GROWTH RATE OF EIGHT PER CENT IN 1979.
HIS FORECAST FOR GROWTH RATE OF OUR DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO GERMANY WAS 10 PER CENT, TO UNITED KINGDOM SIX PER CENT AND TO THE REST OF THE WORLD NINE PER CENT, AS AGAINST THE 1979 GROWTH RATES OF 22 PER CENT, 28 PER CENT AND 20 PER CENT RESPECTIVELY.
ON THE AMERICAN MARKET, SIR PHILIP SAID THE GROWTH RATE OF OUR DOMESTIC EXPORTS IN THE SECOND HALF OF 1979 PICKED UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND, AT THE END OF THE YEAR ORDER BOOKS STILL REMAINED REASONABLY FULL.
+BUT ONE OF THE FACTORS BEHIND THIS RECOVERY WAS THAT INVENTORIES WERE BEING REPLENISHED, HAVING BEEN RUN DOWN IN RESPONSE TO HIGH INTEREST RATES AND IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MUCH TALKED OF
IMMINENT RECESSION.
+ INVENTOR IES ARE REPORTED TO BE STILL BELOW NORMAL AND THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY TO RE-BUILD IN ANTICIPATION OF FURTHER INFLATION, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT THIS,+ HE SAID.
/ON OUR
++