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SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 1980
WITHIN THE MANUFACTURING DIVISION, THE 'ELECTRONICS' AND 'ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, APPLIANCES AND SUPPLIES' SECTORS ARE THE ONLY ONES EXPECTING BUSINESS TO IMPROVE IN THE COMING QUARTER. FOR THE SECTOR 'ELECTRONICS', THIS REPRESENTS A FURTHER ADVANCE AS IT ALREADY REPORTED IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LAST QUARTER.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IN THE SECTOR ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, APPLIANCES AND SUPPLIES, PERFORMANCE WAS NOT UNIFORM IN THE FOURTH QUARTER,
THE 'WATCHES AND CLOCKS' "WEARING APPAREL' AND 'MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES SECTORS WHICH DID WELL IN THE FOURTH QUARTER PREDICT MILD DETERIORATIONS.
THE SECTOR TEXTILES' REPORTED THAT ITS BUSINESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER WAS LARGELY THE SAME AS IN THE THIRD QUARTER AND IT PREDICTS A SLOW-DOWN IN THE COMING QUARTER.
MOST OTHER MANUFACTURING SECTORS REPORTED SOME DETERIORATIONS IN THE LAST QUARTER AND PREDICT FURTHER DETERIORATIONS IN THE COMING QUARTER.
THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY REPORTED MODERATE ADVANCES IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1979 WHICH IT EXPECTS WILL BE CARRIED FORWARD INTO THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1980.
FOR THE SERVICES SECTORS, THE 'HOTELS' AND 'RESTAURANTS' SECTORS EXPECT A LOW FIRST QUARTER AFTER PASSING THROUGH A FOURTH QUARTER IN WHICH BUSINESS IMPROVED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE THIRD QUARTER LEVELS,
THE 'WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE' SECTOR ALSO HAD A HIGH FOURTH QUARTER, AND LOOKS FORWARD TO A SIMILAR LEVEL OF BUSINESS
IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1980.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR WHICH HAD A STEADY FOURTH QUARTER EXPECTS SOME DETERIORATION.
THE 'BANKS' AND 'MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS SERVICES' SECTORS REPORTED APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1979 AND ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PROSPECTS IN THE COMING QUARTER.
THE SPOKESMAN POINTED OUT THAT THE DATA, OBTAINED WITH A MINIMUM TIME LAG, WERE BASICALLY INTENDED TO FACILITATE A QUICK ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION IN HONG KONG.
APART FROM A LIMITED NUMBER OF QUESTIONS REQUIRING ANSWERS IN QUANTITATIVE TERMS, FIRMS WERE ASKED TO COMPARE THE QUARTER JUST PAST WITH THE PREVIOUS QUARTER AND SIMILARLY FOR THE FORTHCOMING ONE, AND ONLY HAD TO INDICATE WHETHER, IN THE IR OPINION, A CERTAIN VARIABLE WAS UP', 'SAME' OR 'DOWN'.
HE SAID THAT IN A SURVEY OF THIS NATURE, CONSIDERABLE RESERVATIONS MUST BE MADE IN THE INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS, AS IT WAS DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE RESPONDENTS' PERCEPTION OF THE PAST AND THE FUTURE ACCORDS WITH THE UNDERLYING TRENDS, AND THE SURVEY RESULTS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTED CONSIDERABLY BY SEASONALITY.
COPIES OF THE REPORT ON THE SURVEY, CONTAINING AN ANALYSIS OF AND STATISTICAL TABLES ON VARIOUS ECONOMIC VARIABLES, HAVE BEEN DISTRIBUTED TO FIRMS TAKING PART IN THE SURVEY AND OTHER BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS.