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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 19, 1979 ·
+WHAT THE REPORT HAS GIVEN US IS A SOLID AND INTERNATIONALLY ACCEPTABLE STATISTICAL BASIS WHICH WILL BE A GREAT HELP IN THE LONG TERM TO THE POLICE AND ALL THOSE ENGAGED IN ASSESSING CRIME AND PURSUING THE FIGHT AGAINST IT.+
MR. LI EMPHASISED THAT PEOPLE SHOULD BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM THIS INITIAL REPORT.
+SINCE IT IS THE FIRST OF ITS KIND IN HONG KONG, HE SAID, +WE HAVE NO SIMILAR PREVIOUS FIGURES WITH WHICH TO MAKE SURE COMPARISONS. BUT THE NEXT REPORT WILL ALLOW MUCH FIRMER ASSESSMENTS, AND I HOPE THAT PEOPLE WILL CO-OPERATE WITH THE 1982 SURVEY AS HELPFULLY AS THEY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THIS ONE.+
IN PARTICULAR, MR. LI CAUTIONED READERS OF THE REPORT AGAINST TRYING TO COMPARE THE INFORMATION PRODUCED IN IT WITH STATISTICS PUBLISHED BY THE POLICE.
+AS THE REPORT ITSELF MAKES CLEAR, HE SAID, +SUCH COMPARISONS ARE INAPPROPRIATE BECAUSE OF SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE BETWEEN THIS SURVEY AND POLICE STATISTICS.
IS +THIS SURVEY, AS THE TITLE OF THE REPORT INDICATES, BASED ON VICTIMISATIONS THAT IS, IT REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO RECALLED BEING VICTIMS OF CERTAIN TYPES OF CRIME IN 1978, WHETHER THE CRIMES WERE REPORTED TO THE POLICE OR NOT.
+POLICE STATISTICS, ON THE OTHER HAND, COVER ALL REPORTED CRIMES ON THE BASIS OF THE NUMBER OF CRIMINAL INCIDENTS, IRRESPECTIVE OF THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS INVOLVED IN EACH INCIDENT.
+FURTHER, THE SURVEY COVERS ONLY VICTIMS AGED 12 AND OVER, WHEREAS POLICE STATISTICS INCLUDE CRIMES AFFECTING THOSE UNDER 12 ALSO.+
STRESSING AGAIN THAT THE TEMPTATION TO LEAP TO ANY SWEEPING CONCLUSIONS AT THIS STAGE SHOULD BE RESISTED, MR. LI SAID IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE REPORT ALLOWS SCOPE NEITHER FOR COMPLACENCY NOR FOR ALARM.
+FOR EXAMPLE, A SUPERFICIAL READING OF TWO TABLES (TABLES IV 1 AND IV 2) MIGHT TEMPT ONE TO CONCLUDE: (A) THAT THE CRIME RATE IN HONG KONG IS GENERALLY MUCH LOWER THAN IN THE FIVE UNITED STATES CITIES FOR WHICH FIGURES ARE ALSO CITED AND (B) THAT HONG KONG PEOPLE DISPLAY FAR LESS CIVIC CONSCIOUSNESS THAN THEIR AMERICAN COUNTERPARTS WHEN IT COMES TO REPORTING ROBBERY.
+HOWEVER, ANY SUCH CONCLUSIONS HAVE TO BE SEVERELY
QUALIFIED BY THE FOLLOWING FACTORS:
FIRSTLY, THE LATEST AVAILABLE FIGURES FOR THE AMERICAN CITIES RELATE TO 1974, NOT 1978.
* SECONDLY, HONG KONG, AS WE ALL KNOW, HAS UNIQUE
CHARACTERISTICS WHICH CAN MAKE DIRECT COMPARISONS WITH OTHER PLACES HIGHLY SUSPECT.
THIRDLY, AMERICAN CRIME REPORTING RATES MAY WELL REFLECT A FAR GREATER INCENTIVE TO REPORT CRIME FOR PURPOSES OF INSURANCE AND OTHER CLAIMS.+
/NEVERTHELESS,