2
WEDNESDAY, JULY 18, 1979
AS FOR THE TRADE AGGREGATES, HE SAID, THE VALUE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR WAS UP BY 33 PER CENT ON THE FIRST HALF OF LAST YEAR AND BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND QUARTERS OF THIS YEAR THE GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS ACCELERATED.
+THE VALUE OF TOTAL EXPORTS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR WAS 37 PER CENT UP ON THE FIRST HALF OF LAST YEAR, WHILST THE VALUE OF IMPORTS WAS UP BY RATHER LESS AT 36 PER CENT.
+THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE POSITION IN 1978 OVER 1977 WHEN THE GROWTH RATE OF IMPORTS AT 29 PER CENT EXCEEDED THE GROWTH RATE OF TOTAL EXPORTS AT 20 PER CENT, MR. HADDON-CAVE SAID.
FURTHERMORE, HE CONTINUED, THE VISIBLE TRADE DEFICIT IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR WAS ONLY JUST SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 16 PER CENT OF TOTAL IMPORTS, COMPARED WITH 17.2 PER CENT IN THE FIRST HALF OF LAST YEAR.
+AND SO NOT ONLY DO I EXPECT THE ABSOLUTE SIZE OF THE VISIBLE TRADE GAP TO BE RATHER LESS THAN THE FIGURE OF $12,000 MILLION FORECAST IN THE BUDGET SPEECH, BUT ALSO AND THIS IS THE REALLY SIGNIFICANT POINT - THE VISIBLE TRADE GAP, AS A PERCENTAGE OF
IMPORTS, HAS CEASED TO WIDEN, HE SAID.
AS FOR THE MONETRAY AGGREGATES, MR. HADDON-CAVE CONTINUED, THE ANNUALISED GROWTH RATE OF M2 (NOTES AND COINS IN CIRCULATION AND DEMAND DEPOSITS AT LICENSED BANKS PLUS TIME AND SAVING DEPOSITS) WAS 18 PER CENT IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF THIS YEAR COMPARED WITH THE RATE CALCULATED ON THE SAME BASIS IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF LAST YEAR WHEN IT WAS 32 PER CENT.
+AGAIN, M2 INCREASED BY NINE PER CENT IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR COMPARED WITH 13.4 PER CENT IN THE FIRST HALF OF LAST YEAR.
+THESE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE GROWTH RATE OF THE MONEY SUPPLY IS ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF G.D.P. IN MONEY TERMS IN 1979, MR. HADDON-CAVE SAID.
ON THE GROWTH RATE OF BANK LOANS AND ADVANCES, THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY SAID IT WAS TAKING LONGER TO SLOW DOWN, ALTHOUGH HE BELIEVED THAT HIGHER INTEREST RATES WERE BEGINNING TO HAVE A CONSTRAINING EFFECT.
+IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR THE GROWTH RATE OF BANK LOANS AND ADVANCES WAS 10 PER CENT COMPARED WITH NO LESS THAN 14 PER CENT DURING THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1978.
• IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF THIS YEAR THE GROWTH RATE WAS STILL LOWER AT 7.4 PER CENT, WHICH ON AN ANNUALISED BASIS, WAS ABOUT 33 PER CENT.
*THIS IS LESS THAN THE GROWTH RATE IN 1978 OF 43 PER CENT, BUT IT IS STILL FAR TOO HIGH AND CONTINUES TO BE A CAUSE OF CONCERN AND ATTENTION, MR. HADDON-CAVE ADDED.