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FRIDAY, MARCH 9, 1979
SURVEY OF HONG KONG'S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR 1979
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THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT TODAY (FRIDAY) ANNOUNCED THE RESULTS OF A SURVEY OF HONG KONG'S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR 1979.
THE SURVEY, CONDUCTED DURING DECEMBER 1978 AND JANUARY THIS YEAR, GATHERED MAINLY FROM MANUFACTURERS THEIR EXPECTATIONS FOR THE WHOLE OF 1979 ABOUT MARKET DEMAND, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, MATERIAL PRICES, CAPACITY UTILISATION AND CAPITAL INVESTMENT.
THE SURVEY COVERED 524 ESTABLISHMENTS ENGAGING 100 OR MORE PEOPLE IN 10 MAJOR MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND 57 LARGEST CONTRACTORS IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY.
A SPOKESMAN FOR THE DEPARTMENT SAID THE SURVEY WAS ONE OF A SERIES OF ENQUIRIES DESIGNED TO OBTAIN INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN HONG KONG.
+RESULTS OF THIS SURVEY WERE ONE OF THE MANY SOURCES OF INFORMATION THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY (MR. PHILIP HADDON-CAVE) USED IN DRAWING UP HIS ECONOMIC FORECASTS IN THE BUDGET SPEECH,+ THE SPOKESMAN SAID.
+AS THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE ECONOMY IS SUCH THAT RESPONDENTS IN THE SURVEY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO PREDICT ACCURATELY WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE YEAR TO COME,+ HE SAID, +RESULTS OF THE SURVEY SHOULD BE INTERPRETED WITH CAUTION.+
HE ADDED THAT IN THE SURVEY ON ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR 1978, FOR EXAMPLE, THE VIEWS GIVEN BY RESPONDENTS, COMPARED WITH THE ACTUAL PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY THAT YEAR, TURNED OUT TO BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE.
AS FAR AS PROSPECTS FOR 1979 ARE CONCERNED, MANUFACTURERS EXPECTED AN OVERALL GROWTH RATE (COMPARED WITH 1978) OF SIX PER CENT IN REAL TERMS, IN BOTH LOCAL AND OVERSEAS DEMAND FOR THE GOODS AND SERVICES THEY PRODUCE.
THEY THOUGHT THAT THE GROWTH RATE OF DEMAND FOR HONG KONG'S EXPORTS IN THE UNITED STATES WOULD BE LESS THAN SIX PER CENT BUT THAT IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY AND IN THE UNITED KINGDOM WOULD BE HIGHER THAN THIS FIGURE.
MANUFACTURERS ALSO EXPECTED THAT PERFORMANCE IN THE ELECTRONICS, PLASTICS, FOOD PRODUCTS AND WATCHES INDUSTRIES IN 1979 WOULD PROBABLY BE BETTER THAN THAT IN TEXTILES AND CLOTHING, THE TWO LARGEST INDUSTRIES IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR.
THEY EXPECTED THAT THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE THEIR LEVEL OF EMPLOYMENT BY SIX PER CENT IN 1979 OVER THE LEVEL LAST YEAR.
THEY FELT THAT THE LABOUR MARKET WOULD REMAIN TIGHT IN 1979. IN FACT, 44 PER CENT OF THE MANUFACTURERS ENUMERATED CONSIDERED IT WOULD BE MORE DIFFICULT TO RECRUIT ADDITIONAL WORKERS THIS YEAR WHILE ANOTHER 48 PER CENT FELT THAT RECRUITMENT WOULD BE JUST AS DIFFICULT AS IN 1978.
/CONSISTENT