11

Moreover our export markets must absorb the effects of the

increases in oil price announced by the OPEC countries. Less specific,

but certainly in our minds, is the situations in Iran, the Middle East

and Rhodesia.

Nevertheless the encouraging fact is that order books and

imports of raw materials at the end of 1978 suggest that prospects for

the first half of 1979 are reasonably good though it is too early to

say what the latter half will bring us.

The Domestic Economy

So our prospects are quite good. But to fulfil them we must

bear certain basic conditions in mind.

First of all, our economy must be kept conducive to a healthy

export-led posture. There must be sufficient resources of labour and

capital on the right terms, to enable our export industries to fill

the orders that are available; there must be sufficient flexibility

in the economy to enable industrialists to adapt to new demands and

opportunities; imports retained for consumption must be commensurate

with our foreign exchange earnings, the bulk of which are from exports.

These, in the simplest terms, are the conditions of Hong Kong's

housekeeping. But over the last year it is clear that in spite of our

apparent prosperity these conditions have not been fulfilled.

The labour market has been too tight; the economy has been

somewhat overstretched; the growth of domestic consumption has

considerably exceeded that of exports; the visible deficit on external

account has widened.

/Some adjustment

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