10
Prospects for 1979
Welcome and arresting as these developments are they cannot
change the basic fact of our economic life, that Hong Kong must earn
its living largely by exporting.
With 58 per cent of our domestic exports going to the United
States, the Federal Republic of Germany and the United Kingdom, our
prospects for 1979 are going to depend very much on what happens in
these three markets.
The prospects in the United States have been consistently
talked and written down by commentators, and just as consistently the
signs of recession have failed to appear. However, it must be assumed
that with the level of interest rates prevailing and likely to prevail,
prospects for this year as a whole may not be as good as last.
But in contrast the prospects for the German economy and the
United Kingdon seem reasonably good.
There is the
As usual the sky is not free of clouds.
limitation imposed on our trade in textiles and clothing.
We are
already feeling the consequences of the reduced opportunities for
growth and flexibility in the Agreements we were forced to conclude
in 1977.
The continued high rate of unemployment in our principal markets
will retain political pressure on Governments to restrict imports
however unfair and misguided that may be.
Moreover our