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MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 6, 1976
+ THE VALUE OF IMPORTS IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1976 WAS 39 PER CENT HIGHER THAN IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1975, WITH LARGE
INCREASES RECORDED IN IMPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI- MANUFACTURES. THE REPORT COMPARES THE QUANTUM INDEXES OF
IMPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURES WITH DOMESTIC EXPORTS AND SUGGESTS THAT THERE MIGHT HAVE BEEN SOME STOCK BUILDING OF RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURES IN THE EARLY PART OF THIS YEAR.
IT ADDS THAT THE INCREASE IN IMPORTS OF CAPITAL GOODS, THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE INCREASE RECORDED FOR IMPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURES, INDICATED CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED TO EXPAND CAPACITY+.
IMPORT PRICES, WHICH GREATLY AFFECT THE LEVEL OF DOMESTIC PRICES, REMAINED VERY STABLE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1976. BUT THE REPORT INDICATES SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF THIS YEAR AND ADDS THAT WITH THE RECOVERY IN MOST MAJOR ECONOMIES WELL ON THE WAY, INCREASED DEMAND WILL ADD TO THE PROSPECT OF GENERAL PRICE INCREASES+.
THE REPORT SHOWS THAT THE TERMS OF TRADE IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1976 HAD MOVED IN HONG KONG'S FAVOUR AND WERE COMPARABLE TO THE TERMS OF TRADE RULING IN 1973.
IN THE SECTION ON MONEY AND BANKING, THE REPORT INDICATES A CONTINUED INCREASE IN BANK DEPOSITS AND HENCE IN THE MONEY SUPPLY. THE LIQUIDITY RATIO OF THE BANKS REMAINED HIGH AND AT THE END OF JUNE 1976 IT WAS 49.8 PER CENT, PUTTING THE BANKS IN A COMFORTABLE POSITION TO EXPAND THE IR LOANS WITHIN HONG KONG WHEN DEMAND PICKS UP.
AS REGARDS THE PROPERTY SECTOR, THE REPORT NOTES THAT THERE WERE DEFINITE SIGNS OF A STRONG RECOVERY IN PRIVATE BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY, TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALSO INCREASES IN GOVERNMENT CAPITAL PROJECTS AND THE MASS TRANSIT RAILWAY, THIS MAY LATER LEAD TO EXCESS DEMAND ON THE BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. FLOOR AREA OF BUILDING PLANS WITH CONSENT TO COMMENCE WORK, WHICH THE REPORT REGARDS AS A FAIRLY RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INVESTMENT CONFIDENCE, MEASURED 13,608 THOUSAND SQUARE FEET IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1976, THE HIGHEST RECORDED SINCE THE FIRST HALF OF 1971. THIS WAS 41 PER CENT HIGHER THAN THE CORRESPONDING FIGURE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 1975 AND 80 PER CENT HIGHER THAN THE TROUGH RECORDED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1974.
IN THE LABOUR MARKET, THE REPORT INDICATES THAT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MARCH 1976 WAS 5.6 PER CENT COMPARED TO 9.1 PER CENT IN SEPTEMBER 1975. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
IN MARCH 1976 WAS 18 PER CENT HIGHER THAN IN MARCH 1975, BUT WAS STILL BELOW THE AVERAGE LEVEL IN 1973. NEVERTHELESS, THE REPORT ADDS THAT THE AVERAGE MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT LEVEL IN 1976 IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHER THAN IN 1973. THE MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT FIGURE OF 749,000 RELEASED TWO WEEKS AGO IS THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED AND IS THEREFORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS VIEW.
/+AT THE