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PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE
Reference :-
C.O.882/11
ALLY WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE BE REPRODUCED PHOTOGRAPHIC-
COPYRIGHT PHOTOGRAPH—NOT TO
PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE. LONDON]
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that the request for an enquiry should be refused and that enquiry made now could not produce satisfactory results and would probably be dangerous. I further learn from Monsieur de la Prade that Monsieur d'Anjou, the present French Consul at Canton, also considers that an enquiry would be useless and dangerous.
(c) At this distance of time it would be very difficult and it would probably in any case be very expensive, to secure the Chinese attendance or evidence of non-Chinese witnesses. witnesses would never dare to give evidence in favour of the British case, whereas the Canton Government could, and doubtless would, manufacture other Chinese evidence to suit its case. Sir Shou-son Chow anyway has no doubt that this would happen. Moreover, the lapse of time since the event has inevitably involved a decay in the value of human testimony.
(d) During the whole period of the enquiry, which would probably last many months, anti-British agitation would be excited and kept alive and old resentments, now smoulder- ing, would be fanned into flame.
(e) There is, I fear, no hope whatever of a unanimous find- ing in favour of the British case by the proposed inter- national commission, for the Chinese member would certainly dissent from such a finding—otherwise under existing condi- tions his life might not be safe; and, if the Chinese member were to dissent from the majority, there would probably be another outburst of anti-British agitation in Kuang-tung, industriously fomented by the Bolshevists. We might. therefore, at the end of the proposed enquiry he faced with a situation in Kuang-tung worse than that which now con- fronts us.
(f) It is quite possible that, before the conclusion of a protracted enquiry, the present Canton Government may be overthrown either by internal disruption or by defeat at the hands of some hostile Chinese War Lord, and that the anti- British boycott might thus come to an end. In that case the continuation of an unfinished enquiry would be a serious embarrassment.
(c) Even if an impartial judicial enquiry into the respon- sibility for the Shakee-Shameen episode were now possible, it could not be agreed that the proposed commission of enquiry should also decide the terms upon which the anti- British boycott should be settled. Therefore, after the finding of the commission of enquiry, it would still be neces- sary to resume the Conference for settlement of the boycott, which now stands adjourned, and after months of delay we should revert to the situation in which we now are with the added danger of the exacerbation of popular feeling that would have taken place meanwhile.
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8. I am, therefore, very definitely of opinion that, having re- gard to local considerations only, the dangers of accepting the Canton proposal of an international commission of enquiry are greater than of a firm and categorical refusal. I asked Monsieur de la Prade, at a discussion which I had with him on the 25th July, what in his opinion would be the effect upon the Canton Government of a firm refusal. He replied unhesitatingly:-" Ils vous feront d'autres propositions "; and this is what I also incline to believe. I do not think that the Canton Government would allow a refusal of the proposed enquiry to put an end to the Con- ference. It seems to me more likely that, for reasons of their own, possibly on account of the military position in Hunan, the Canton delegates are playing for time and also that for purposes of propaganda they wish to obtain our refusal.
9. There can be little doubt that an immediate and categorical refusal of the demand for an enquiry, which (however impractic- able) appears at first sight to be a reasonable proposal, would be used by the Canton Soviet and its Bolshevik advisers for world- wide anti-British propaganda, and that it might bring obloquy upon His Majesty's Government both at home and abroad. His Majesty's Government is better able than the Hongkong Govern- ment to judge the importance of this danger: and, if His Majesty's Government decides to refuse the enquiry, the refusal should, I venture to think, be so worded as to make clear-
(a) that the proposed enquiry is no solution of the boycott problem, because the Canton delegates themselves inti- mated that the boycott would not be lifted until after the enquiry:
(b) that no request has hitherto been made by the Chinese Government for an enquiry, and that, although His Majesty's Government would have been very willing to agree to such an enquiry a year ago, had it then been asked for by the Chinese Government, it is not possible now after so long a lapse of time to make any genuine enquiry owing to the dis- persal of the necessary witnesses and the decay in the value of human testimony: and
(c) that in no case could the proposed commission of enquiry be authorised by His Majesty's Government to decide terms for settling the boycott.
10. Mr. Kemp and Mr. Halifax think that it may perhaps be possible for His Majesty's Government to make no immediate reply to the proposal for an enquiry and merely to make a counter- proposal. If you consider this to be the wisest course, then I suggest a counter-proposal on the following lines:-" Condi- tional upon the immediate and complete cessation of the boycott and of all other anti-British manifestations throughout the terri- tory controlled by the Canton Government, His Majesty's Govern- ment agrees to construct the junction line between the Kowloon- Canton and the Canton-Hankow railways from Boxer Indemnity