31
4
A reasonable working hypothesis would seem to be that by about six months after the conclusion of hostilities there should be a very substantial improvement in the shipping position so far as carrying capacity is concerned, though freights will be high.
it
9. As regards the demand for oils and oilseeds in the United Kingdom after the War,
be pointed out :-
may
•
(a) That the supply of glycerine, which before the War was a by-product of the soap industry, became during the War so important for the manufacture of propellants in this country as to be given priority over other uses of oil, subject of late to the special claims of margarine. Hostilities having ceased, glycerine again becomes a by-product, of which the ordinary operations of soapmakers will ensure the supply of all that is wanted. (b) During the War, owing to the great decrease in the production in and importation into this country of butter and other edible fats, the use of margarine has been greatly extended. So also has the production of margarine in the United Kingdom. Before the War, the total consumption of margarine by the United Kingdom was about 3,000 tons a week and the production of margarine in the United Kingdom was about 1,500 tons a week, or say 75,000 tons a year, requiring about 56,000 tons a year of hard oils and about 19,000 tons of crude soft oils. Now, the production in the United Kingdom is about 5,000 tons a week or 260,000 tons a year, requiring about 195,000 tons of crude hard oil and about 65,000 tons of soft oil. Moreover at present the civilian population is limited to the meagre butter or margarine ration of 4 or 5 oz. a week, or about one
half of the normal amount consumed. When the War is over there will be a strong demand for more; and, as the supply of butter will presumably remain low for a considerable time and as many who have had to take to margarine will continue to use it, considerably more margarine than the present consumption of from 290,000 to 310,000 tons a year will probably be required in the United Kingdom. (c) After the War, the demand for paint and varnish in this country will probably for some time be abnormally large, since during the last year or two paint and painters have been scarce and dear and much house property has not been kept properly painted. Also a lot of paint will be required in connection with re-bousing in the ruined areas of France and Belgium. This should mean a large demand for linseed oil.
(d) Castor oil, on the contrary, should be somewhat less in demand, as much less flying will be done when hostilities cease; though after a few years the demand should increase again with the development of postal and possibly commercial air services.
10. The following is offered as a rough attempt to form some estimate of the amounts of the various kinds of oleaginous produce which will be required in this country during the year after the War. It was submitted in July to the India Office, the Ministry of Food, the Board of Agriculture and Fisheries, and the Board of Trade, and it has been revised in a few details in the light of the replies received by the Colonial Office from the first three of those Departments.
11. Amounts required for margarine making. Taking in the first place our require- ments for the manufacture of margarine; imports of margarine (mainly from Holland) formerly used to be about 75,000 tons a year. In 1916 they were about 137,000 tons and in 1917 about 92,000 tons.
It may be assumed that after the war Holland will at first send most of her surplus margarine to Germany and that margarine from Holland cannot therefore be relied upon by this country.
The requirements of the United Kingdom may be put at about 400,000 tons a year, and it will probably be necessary to manufacture in the United Kingdom for United Kingdom consumption alone approximately this amount. As the margarine manufacturing capacity, and the refining capacity for producing fine edible oil are both expected to reach 450,000 tons before the end of 1918, the production in the United Kingdom of 400,000 tons a year of margarine is within our manufacturing capacity. In order to manufacture 400,000 tons of margarine we should require the following amounts of unrefined oils, or substitutes therefor, and animal fats :-
Palm kernel oil and coconut oil Cotton seed oil and ground-nut oil Animal fats
Tons.
240,000
100,000
60,000
5
Rape oil, sesame oil, and soya bean oil can be used in substitution for cotton seed oil and ground-nut oil: but, as they have hitherto beeu little used in the United Kingdom for this purpose, they can be left out of the account for the present.
Premier jus, neutral lard and oleo oil are substitutes for the hard vegetable oils. As stated above (paragraph 4), they are necessary components of margarine in the case of the smaller firms, whose equipment does not enable them to make satisfactory margarine with vegetable oils only, especially in the summer, and they are also used by the Dutch firms such as Jurgens, Limited, and Van den Bergh's (who have recently started margarine factories in England).
12. For other edible purposes we should require about 150,000 tons of oil a year which would consist of:-
Coconut oil...
Palm kernel oil Cotton seed oil Ground-nut oil Sesame oil
Soya oil Olive oil Oleo oil Premier jus
...
Stearine (beef and mutton)
Tallow (edible)
Tona.
4,000
4,000
50,000
20,000
4,000
8,000
5,000
8,000
30,000
10,000
7,000
150,000
It is difficult to say how much of each oil will be needed, and there is great scope
for interchangeability if necessary, but the figures placed against each oil may be taken as
a rough first approximation, capable of a good deal of variation if necessary.
13. Amounts required for soap and candle trade. -For soap and candle-making the choice of oils and fats is more varied and interchangeabiity greater than in the case of margarine, as indicated in paragraph 5 above, and there may be available at the end of the War considerable stocks of fatty acids produced by the splitting plants employed for obtaining glycerine.
The consumption of the United Kingdom soap and candle trade was :-
In 1915
1916
11
1917
17
"
207,000 tons of oil 255,000 12 264,000 1918 it is expected to be 164,000 tons.
"
"
17
and
During the year after the War, these trades will probably need at least 200,000 tons, which might be distributed as follows:-
Whale oil Tallow
Ground-nut oil Cotton seed oil
Linseed oil
Palm oil
Soap stock (ie. refinery residues)
Tons.
30,000
50,000
3,000
10,000
25,000
50,000
32,000
200,000
but if possible they ought to receive a few thousand tons of coconut or palm kernel oil, for use in the manufacture of the better classes of toilet soaps.
In view of the amount of refined oil that will be required for margarine and other edible purposes, the amount of soap stock available should be considerably more than 32,000 tons, and this should provide a reserve, which the soap makers will be able to use if necessary.
1. Amounts required for other technical purposes.--As regards castor oil, the amount required will presumably be somewhat less than during the first part of 1918
20294
A 3
PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE
Reference :-
TIFICO
bimbil
885/26
ALLY WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE BE REPRODUCED PHOTOGRAPHIC- COPYRIGHT PHOTOGRAPH-NOT TO
PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE, LONDON