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The Gravity of the Situation from 1906 to 1909.
36. The statement that "only the seriousness of the whole situation could appears both significant and true. Attached have warranted measures so drastic" hereto are copies of such paragraphs from the 1906 despatch as concerned it. Their substances may be summed up about as follows:-
(A) A large number of deaths had occurred, and the populations of some of the older infected districts had been reduced by one-half to two thirds, or even more.
(B) It was believed that the epidemic was not losing its virulence, but that smaller number of deaths was due to smaller number of possible victims. (C) It was believed that the proportion of infected inhabitants in the fly-
infested regions and specially in Sesse-was very large.
(D) It was feared that the disease would spread into other parts of the
Protectorate.
(E) The natives were apathetic and unwilling to act on the individual
initiative.
(F) It was believed that sleeping sickness would spread if once introduced
into any populated, fly-infested locality.
Each of these points may be taken up in turn.
(A)—Mortality in affected Districts during the course of the Epidemic. (See excerpt, paragraphs 19 and 21.)
37. The Tables VI. and VII. attached have been prepared to supplement the statement concerning the seriousness of the epidemic. They speak even more eloquently, even though the figures of the totals are not so large. Any recurrence or extension of such an epidemic is certainly something to be feared and avoided.
Table VI.-Deaths by Sleeping Sickness in Buganda Province by Sazas, with relation to Location of Lake.
Islanda
Location of Saza.
Bizk.
Fatimated Population,
Deaths by Sleeping Bickness.
Indicated Deaths per 1,000,
Buvuma Sesse
11,000
45,768
812
TER
11,776
12,121
625
Total
22,776*
57,889
688
Mainland bordering the Lake...
Chagwe
81,583
14,061
147
Kyadondo
105,402
2,780
25
Busiro...
56,859
7,609
118
Mawakota
35,530
1,667
43
Buddu...
95,694
1,684
17
Total
375,068+
27,801
69
Mainland Interior
316,927+
1,306
4
Buganda Province
Grand Total...
771,483
86,996
100
69
Table VII.-Deaths by Sleeping Sickness in Mainland Sazas bordering the Lake with reference to Population of Lake Shore.
Chagwe Kyadondo Busiro Mawakota Buddu
Total
Sazi.
Indicated Number of
Deaths 1er 1,000 Population in Infected Zone.
*Estimated Population
Removed from Two-Mile Zone in 1907.
Deaths Returned from Bleeping Sickness.
•
4,351
14,061
763
2,622
2,780
513
4,708
7,609
617
4,246
1,667
282
8,735
1,684
311
19,662
27,801
(B)-The Declining Virulence of the Epidemic.
(See excerpt, paragraph 21.)
585
38. The belief expressed in paragraph 21 was or was not warranted by the real situation, depending upon the construction given to the term "possible victims."
39. In 1909 there were, in round numbers, 10,000 healthy persons resident on Sesse. It is a very safe assumption that every individual was exposed at least once to the chance of being bitten by Glossina, and any individual Glossina was possibly infective. In this sense every healthy person resident on Sesse was a possible victim of the disease.
40. But the death returns indicate that, under the conditions prevailing in Sesse in 1909, only about two per cent. of the population could possibly contract infection. Therefore the number of possible victims under these conditions was only about 200. (It is fairly evident from paragraphs 24 and 23 that the term was not used in this sense.)
41. The virulence of the disease in individual cases had shown no signs of abatement in 1906, nor appears to have done so subsequently, but the virulence of the epidemic was rapidly declining because conditions were becoming more and more unfavourable for its transmission.
(C)-Proportion of Population carrying Infection from 1906 to 1909. (See excerpt, paragraph 22.)
42. The amount of infection existing in Buganda from 1906 to 1909 (if any dependence is to be placed on the returns of deaths) was over-estimated by nearly everyone who ventured to express an opinion. The following cases serve well to bear out the statement :-
43. (a) Professor Koch was "of the opinion that nearly every soul now remaining (in Sesse) is infected and that all must assuredly die within a year or two." This was late in 1906. Deaths were returned as follows:--
Period during which population remained on islands, continually exposed to infection.
1907
1908
1909
678 506 436
*
=
5.2 per cent. 4·1
"
22
3.7
"
* Number of inhabitants removed in 1909. The figure given for Buvuma agrees with that supplied by the Lukiko to the Provincial Commissioner and that in the report of the Officer in Charge of Sleeping Sickness Administrative Measures upon the depopulation of the islands. does not agree with the figure given by Dr. Hodges in his annual report for 1909.
† Based on census of 1911.
It
Period subsequent to removal of natives from islands.
1910 to 1914 295
2.5 per cent.
Total deaths subsequent to 1906: 1,915 14-8 per cent.
=
Estimated proportion of population actually infected at time when statement was made: not more than 75 per cent.
This is based on the number of taxpayers evicted, as returned by the Regents to the Govern- ment, as a basis for remuneration; 44 population to each taxpayer is the average for Bugands Provinos according to figures in the Blue Book. The whole estimate is very rough, but it given some idea of the extent and variable extent to which the various sazas suffered, and of the population in the infected song.