PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE
Reference :-
CO. 882
ALLY WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE BE REPRODUCED PHOTOGRAPHIC- COPYRIGHT PHOTOGRAPH-NOT TO
7PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE, LONDON
Mr.
18
MINUTES OF EVIDENCE:
THIRD DAY.
Tuesday, 2nd December 1902.
Sir DAVID BARBOUR, K.U.S.I., KAM.6, (Chairman) presiding.
Mr. W. ADAMSON, UMG, Mr. G. W. JoHNSON,
Mr. W. BLAIN.
Mr. A. E. COLLINS, Secretary
Mr. ROBERT CAMPBELL, called; and Examined.
609. (Chairman.) You are manager of the National R. Campbell. Bank of India 7-Ý‚...‚
2 Dec. 1902.
610. You have been so for a number of years 1- Yes
611. And the National Bank of India does business in the East-In India, Ceylon, and Burmah.
612. Further East than Burmah ?-Not further east. 613. Have you been manager for many years ?— Twenty-five.
614. You have resided in the East yourself in former times (--Yes.
615. When was that?-From 1961 to 1874,
616. And where did you reside during that period? -I have been pretty well all over the East, but chiefly in Bombay and Calcutta.
617. Have you been in China 7-I have been in Chins, but only in passing through.
618. Did you reside in any other portion of the East except India ---No, except for a short time in the Straits.
619. And from your position as manager of the National Bank, you have, no doubt, had to give st tention to the question of the relative value of gold and silver and the exchanges of the East?--Certainly.
620. I think you were a member of the Committee on the Indian Ourrency, of which Sir Henry Fowler was president 7-Yes.
621. So that it may fairly be said that your atten- tion in past years has been specially directed to the question of the Eastern exchanges?--It has been a good deal directed.
622. You have put in a momorandum, for which we are very much obliged to you, I suppose you would not object to its being printed as containing a state- ment of your views --No; I meant it more for your own use, but I have no objection to its being printed. Perhaps, before printing it, there might be one or two corrections I might wish to make in it.
623. A proof will be sent to you, so that you can put it in final form?—Yes
624. I gather, from your memorandum, that you doubt very much whether the introduction of a gold standard into the Straits Settlements would be expe dient -I doubt it very much, considering that China and all the surrounding countries are silver-using countries, and are in close trade relations with Sings- pore.
625. And you also base your argument on the fact that the Straits Settlements are not a producing coun- try, that they receive produce mainly from silver countries and export it again 7-I think that is the great point in regard to the Straits.
626. You know, I daresay, that the Dutch possessions have got a gold standard Oh, yes.
627. And that Japan has got a gold standard?— Yes.
628. Are you aware that the Americans are talking of establishing a gold standard in the Philippines ?— I know that sometime ago they sent a man out to make inquiry in regard to that; but I have not heard whether he has reported yet.
629. And I daresay you know it has been reported in the newspapers quite recently that Bisan has stopped coining silver freely? Yes.
630. I do not know whether you have seen that the French Government is rocidering the question of the standard in Frend. China-I have not seen that.
631. Well, if all that tries went to a gold stan-
lard, would that alter your opinion ?--It would modify it considerably; but I do not say that it would alter my opinion unless Hong Kong and China were to go in the same direction.
632. Do you think it would be possible for China to go to a gold standard at the present time1-I do not know; that is a very difficult question to answer.
633. I understand you are of opinion that if there was an over-valued silver coin legal tender in the Straits Settlemente, it might materially interfere with the trade which is now done by the Straits Settlements?— I think so.
633*. You think that people who now bring produce from silver-using countries to the Straits Settlementa might hesitate to do so when they were paid in coin that they could not take away with them 1-They might be largely tempted to seek a better market, say, in Hong Kong, or to send their produce to Europe direct. 634. Well, so far as produce is concerned that goes from the neighbourhood of the Straits Settlements to Europe, it would not be likely to go to Hong Kong as a half-way house?-I do not know.
635. It would be going a long way in the wrong direction, would it not? It would. Still, if there was a very great difference in the price they got for their produce in the one place as compared with the other, it might neutralise that.
636. I imagine that those persons who bring produce to the Straits Settlements would generally take away goods with them, or the vessels that bring that pro- duce would take away other goods --To a certain extent.
637. If they got a malier price in the new dollars in the Straits Settlements they would find that that price, in proportion, would buy more in European pro- duce-In the Straite Settlements, certainly.
638. In the Straits Settlements 7-Yes; but still, as I point out in my memorandum, they take away a very large number of dollars annually, which they take in cash, and not in produce.
639. But even if the Straits Settlements had a gold standard,there is no reason why they should not take away the dollars just the same 7-They would get fewer dollars.
640. But they might buy the Mexican dollars with the new and dearer dollars, and take away Mexicau dollars. That is to say, Mexican dollars are now im ported into the Straits Settlements to be distributed into other countries; even if the Straits Settlements had a gold standard there is no reason why these Mexican dol lars should not still be imported into the Straite Set- tlements for that purpose?-Certainly, if they were sub- ject to no duty.
641. And I gather that you think that even if a special silver dollar, overvalued, were introduced into the Straits Settlements, the Mexican dollars would still, in all probability, circulate very largely –Well, I think it would be very difficult to keep them out alto- gether, especially across land frontiers.
642. But would there be any object in keeping them out-Wek, they might interfere very much with the circulation of the new Straits dollars. If you did not keep them out, you might have two quotations for produce, one payable in Mexican dollars and another payable in the Straits dollar, which would be very confusing, and businem zight practically go on in the Mexican dollar as before.
643. You think that that is quite possible think that that is quite possible.
644. You have seen the report of the Sub-Committee of the Chamber of Commerce at Singapore; I forget
COMMITTEE ON STRAITS BETTLEMENTS CURRENCY.
when it was issued-18037-1897. Yes. I have seen that book.
645. And what do you think of their proposal to issue notes in exchange for coin, as a preliminary mes- sure, to introducing a gold standard -Wet, I express my opinion in my memorandum, that that might do all very well for Singapore and Penang; but that it would not suit the country districts or outlying coun- tries,
646. Do you refer by that phrase to the Federated Malay Straits 7-Yes, and the other countries that send their produce to Singapore and take away dollars in ex- ahange; they would not take notes.
647. No, they would not take away notes?—And dur- ing that transition period you might have the Singa. pore trade very much interfered with.
648. But, I suppose, with those notes you could al- ways buy Mexican dollars Always, supposing there is no import duty imposed on the Mexican dollar.
649. You have not lived in the Straits Settlements? No; I was six weeks in Singapore a long while ago.
650. Therefore, I presume, you would not care to give an opinion whether the people would accept the notes or not?-I only judge by the case of India, where the people in the Mofussil will not accept anything but rupees.
651-2. I quite agree, from my experience, that it would be absolutely impossible in India to force the people to give up their rupees and take notes ?-Quite so.
653. But the Straits Settlements may be different? -Possibly, but I doubt it.
654. Then you think that if the new dollar was coined, a special doliar was coined, to which the Government wished to give the value of 24,, taking that value of 28. for the purposes of argument, there might be a difficulty in maintaining the new dollar at that value? --I think so.
655. I suppose it would be possible to do so by limit- ing the numbers of the new dollars-Limiting the numbers.
656. Limiting their numbers ---I suppose, the number required would be the number that the trade needed.
657. Well, but would not the trade have to accom- modate itself to the number of dollars in existence?
It might do by shrinking.
For 658. Might it do it by the fall in prices. instance, if prices in this country and wages were only one-half what they are, we could do with one-half the amount of gold Certainly,
659. So that the adjustment might be made in that way-To that extent it might,
660. Or if there was a great depreciation of silver, instead of a shrinkage in prices, you might have a failure of prices to rise as high as they otherwise would have done? The price of silver then would not affect the Straits produce at all.
661. No; but suppose the Straits Settlements had a silver standard, as it has now, and that silver fell, we will say to 10d. an oz., there is no doubt that prices would rise very largely in the Straits Settlements 7- Certainly.
662. If you had a dollar worth 18. 7d. introduced into the Straits Settlements with a gold standard, the result might be, that instead of having a fall in prices you would have a failure to reach that height in prices, to which they would have risen ander a silver standard?-Bay, a dollar at 1s. 7d.; that is about its present value,
663. Saya dollar at 1s. 7d. —Yes.
664. There might be a shrinking of prices, or there might be a failure of prices to rise-A failure to rise.
666. Do you think that limiting the number of dollars might produce stringency in the money market ?--Į think it might,
did.
666. Do you think it did in the case of India?—It
667. There was a stringency?—Yes.
668. Do you think it was due to the limitation in the number of rupees 7-Yes; before the rate of ex change rose to ls. 4d.
669. Yes, but now the Indian gold standard would not have that effect any longer?-No.
6849
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670. So that if there was a stringency in the Straits Settlements, that stringency would only be temporary, if the gold standard became effective?-I am not sure of that.
671. Well, when the gold standard became effective, would you anticipate stringency any longer --The gold standard might be made effective for the time by stringency.
672. By stringency —Yes.
673. And after that the stringency would cease 7- Yes, until the same condition brought stringency back again.
674. But if the gold standard was established, the same conditions would never arise; the old condition of things in India with the rupee at 18. 2d. could not arise; you could not get in India rupees, except by paying Is. 4. That depends on how you establisi the gold standard. If you can establish it by trade influences, that would be so; if you establish it by borrowing-support the standard by borrowing, then the stringency would return as the borrowed gold be- came exhausted in maintaining the fixed rate, and the dollars in circulation returned to the Treasury in ex- change for it.
675. So that you would prefer, if the gold standard was to be established, to establish it by the gradual operation of trade influences rather than by any sudden measure?--Certainly, if it were possible.
676. If it were possible?—Yes.
677. And, specially, you are not much in favour of borrowing in order to keep up the gold standard 7-- Borrowing to some extent might, as I have said in my memorandum, be necessary at the start, but beyond that I think it would be a mistake.
678. You think, that if the balance of trade, or the balance of indebtedness, which ever you choose to call it, was against the Straits Settlements, it would be difficult to maintain the new dollar at its face value } -I think so.
679. You observe that the balance of trade is at present against the Straits Settlements -Very much against the Straits Settlements.
680. That is according to the returns 7-Yes. 681. But, do you think those returns can be correct? -I do not think they can. I do not see how the Straits Settlements can go on, year by year, taking in $40,000,000 worth more than they give out.
682. In fact, it is not possible-I do not think it is possible.
683. Do you think that, as a rule, you can attach very much credit to the value of the reconled exports and imports of countries in the East, where my experi- ences have been? It seems to me that you very seldom can get an accurate return of values. I do not say that this arises from any fault of the people who record the values, but from causes that cannot be got over ?--- Well, you may get an approximate account.
684. An approximate account —Yes. 685. For instance, it is very difficult to get the exact value of everything that comes in and goes out i
course.
686. I suppose, that would be especially the cass in
■place like Singapore where there are no export and import duties --Possibly. Still, you have only got the trade statistics to go upon.
687. That is all you have got ?—That is all you have got.
(Mr. Adamson.) One explanation may be, that the produce entered is the net value, and produce ex- ported is the gross value, plus all the charges.
(Chairman.) The difference is $40,000,000; you cannot account for $40,000,000 from that cause.
(Mr. Adamson.) Still, that explains one part of it 688. (Chairman.) Oh, yes, there are various explans- tions-You see, $40,000,000 is about 13 per cent. of the whole volume of trade, I mean the whale volume on the one side.
(Mr. Adamson.) I think you might very well add 10 per cent. on to the net value of produce importe l in the native bosts before that produce goes out in the European steamer,
(Chairman.) Profit and other things.
(Mfr. Adaman.) Profit, insurance, various things.
您
Mr.
R. Campbell.
2 Dec. 1902.