PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE
Reference :-
PICO. 882
ALLY WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE BE REPRODUCED PHOTOGRAPHIC- COPYRIGHT PHOTOGRAPH-NOT TO
4 PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE, LONDON
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certainly, but sufficient, at all events, to prevent the scheme from becoming a burden on the Colony.
9. The Commissioners further show that there is no reason to apprehend any diminution in the tonnage of agricultural produce to be exported from Uva; and while they have carefully limited their calculations of profit by the use of figures exclusively based on the past and existing condition of that Province, they point out that, even if no further development of agricultural enterprise takes place, a material increase in the receipts estimated may, under two heads at all events, be safely relied on. Large quantities of tea and cinchona, as well as coffee are, even now, being raised in Uva. Tea cultivation is carried on continuously throughout the year; it requires the employ- ment of a much greater number of labourers than coffee cultivation; and tea is not, like coffee, packed in bags, but in boxes which will themselves have to be introduced by railway. An increase, therefore, in both passenger and goods traffic may confidently be looked for. Again, it is manifest that manures, now only to be conveyed by carts at rates which prohibit its employment, will, when easily obtainable, be largely used by the owners of estates. The Commissioners further point out that the contemplated rates of freight on which their estimates of profit are based are considerably lower than those now charged for cartage, and they correct some of the erroneous suppositions upon which a portion of Sir F. Stanley's doubts were founded.
10. Your Lordship will find in the report itself, and the papers attached to it, the details on which the calculations and conclusions of the Committee are based. The estimate now given of the working expenses is the result of actual experience, and not, as was the case last year, merely a conjectural estimate; the actual working expenses of the Nanu-oya section having been taken as a guide, and a sufficient sum added to cover the cost of running the extra traffic on the main line, besides providing for the renewal of the permanent way.
11. The two main propositions which Sir F. Stanley lays down as being, in general terms, those which lead him to hesitate as to giving sanction to the work, are that in the existing circumstances of the Colony "it must surely be unwise to embark on a "work the cost of which," whatever its results, "must be very great"; and that the ultimate success of the line "cannot be regarded as beyond all doubt."
12. I should have been inclined to suppose that the wisdom of under aking such a work depended less on its actual cost than on the probabilitics of a fair return; but, without discussing that point, I would respectfully demur to the assumptions contained in the 3rd and 4th paragraphs of Sir F. Stanley's despatch on which this conclusion is based. They would appear to be duc, not so much to an examination of actual facts, as to an impression remaining from the exaggerated alarm which prevailed some three years ago, when, according to Mr. Dickson's memorandum appended to the Report of the Retrenchment Committee, a deficiency of Rs. 500,000 in the Colonial revenue for 1883 was to be anticipated, increasing to one of Rs. 860,000 in 1884, and Rs. 1,056,000 in 1885. But these sinister prognostications were far from being verified. There was no excess of expenditure over revenue in any of these years, and the revenue itself has increased annually since 1882, showing in 1885 an excess of more than Rs. 500,000 over the revenue of the former year. Should the estimated revenue for the present year be reulised, it will exceed that for 1882 by nearly Rs. 1,000,000. It must be remembered, moreover, that even if the revenue bad remained at what it was in 1882 (its lowest point), a sum of no less than Rs. 900,000 is now annually available for purposes of Government which was not so in that year: Rs. 600,000 a year less than formerly is now devoted to military expenditure, owing to the reduction of the contribution conceded in reply to the request of the Legislative Council of Ceylon; while Rs. 300,000 are saved by the improved system of road upkeep. It cannot now with truth be said that "the annual receipts are barely sufficient to allow the ordinary "administration of the Colony to be efficiently carried on." During the year 1885 several works of importance were undertaken, forming no part of ordinary administrative expenditure, at a total cost of at least Rs. 500,000; yet the surplus of revenue over expenditure amounted at the close of the year to Rs. 39,656. Nor would it be difficult to show that local and accidental causes largely contributed to the depreciation of the arrack rents for 1885-86; and the sales this year show in every province (so far us is at present known) a rise, amounting altogether to an excess of nearly Rs. 70,000 over last year's rates. I am equally unable to assent to the assertion that the period is "one of great financial trouble." It is one which, no doubt, requires a vigilant eye and a firm hand to keep clear of danger; but if the expenditure be carefully controlled and judiciously applied, I see no reason for apprehension, or for the exercise of a piggardly parsimony.
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Instead of the great and increasing deficits which in 1883 were anticipated for that and the following years, 1883, 1884, aud 1885 have all shown a surplus, and for 1885 & not inconsiderable one.
13. But even if it be granted that the amount required to meet the expenses of the loan can be paid without inconvenience, "the success of the line," says Sir F. Stanley, "cannot be regarded as beyond all doubt."
14. The success of no human undertaking can be said to be absolutely free from a certain degree of doubt. The chances of failure are almost always numerous, and if we allow ourselves to dwell on them too exclusively, they may go far to make the success of any proposal appear well nigh hopeless. In the present case, if agricultural produce altogether fails, if the returns furnished are misleading, if tea, coffee, and cinchona all go out of cultivation,-if the estimates for construction have to be largely increased, -if the expenses of working the existing iine form no criterion of those of the section yet to be made, if the planters prefer slow and unsafe and costly transport for their produce, to its swift and secure conveyance at a lower rate, then indeed I grant the proposed extension would probably not show a handsome credit balance. But can there be held to be any reasonable probability of such accumulated ill-luck? The estimates of construction, of expenses, and of profits have been framed, reviewed, and approved by most competent authority, after most deliberate and careful investigation, the returns of produce have been tested by those who cannot well be deceived as to their accuracy and reliability, and the honesty of whose judgment is as much above suspicion, as their competency to pronounce an authoritative opinion is beyond question. I maintain that, on the contrary, there is every reasonable probability, such a probability as determines most of the actions of life, that the enterprise will prove not only remunerative, but handsomely remunerative, and that in a degree far greater than the self-restraint and caution of the Commissioners have permitted them to anticipate.
15. The advocates of the extension might also on their side indulge in hypothesis. If even a moderate enlargement of the present area of tea cultivation takes place, if the improvement which has shown itself in the yield of coffee continues, if the carters find it useless to continue to carry on a losing traffic, we may safely anticipate, not the bare profit anticipated by the Commission, but a very considerable one. I do not say these things will take place, but they are neither impossible nor improbable; they are indeed far more probable than the opposite suppositions. Surely it is wiser in such cases to think less of possibilities, and to base our action on existing facts as they stand. This has been done by the Commissioners, who have taken a view of the probable profits so low-pitched as quite to justify a correspondingly low estimate of expenses, and to leave a margin for an excess under that head in more directions than one.
16. I will now proceed to notice in detail some of the objections which are raised by Sir F. Stanley.
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17. Sir F. Stanley complains that he has been placed at some disadvantage by the stipulation that the estate returns are to be treated as confidential," as he has been unable to have them properly examined and analysed; but, assuming their accuracy, "he points out that they are based on data extending over a period of only three years, obviously too short for the deduction of trustworthy averages.' The returns now sent extend over a period of five years; but although I entirely agree with Sir F. Stanley in the opinion that three years is too short a period on which to calculate averages, it must be admitted that an average based on the three least prosperous years the Colony has ever known cannot, at all events, be objected to on the ground of being unduly favourable. I am also desired to explain that, while the planters not unnaturally object to general publicity being given to their returns, they are quite willing that your Lordship should submit them confidentially to any examination or test which your Lordship may think necessary, and that they should be privately communicated to any person or persons your Lordship may think proper.
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18. In the same paragraph it is remarked that “the general manager assumes that at a rate of Rs. 33 per ton he will secure the whole of the down traffic. But this rate is higher than the existing minimum cart rates in all the districts, and higher also than "the average cart rutes in two out of the three districts to be served by the railway.” "Are the undoubted advantages of greater security and rapidity of transport," Sir F. Stanley inquires, "sufficient to induce the planter to pay to the railway Rs. 33 per ton for carrying his produce from Haputalé, when he can cart it at a cost of only "Rs. 277" In the first place, I would remark that the minimum rate at which carts have been known to carry produce can hardly with justice be said to be that for which the planter, speaking generally, "can cart it"; but this point is now of very minor importance. Since the 1st January of the present year the rates of carriage on the
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