10 October 1949
TOP SECRET
Annex I to
JIC (FE) (49)41(Final)
2
—
©
When South China comes under Chinese Communist control, the value of Hong Kong to the Communists as a centre for party activities will be much reduced. In any schemes of trade with the outside world, however, the Colony will offer the C.C.P. great advantages as an outlet for South China with a stable currency and mercantile facilities. Although, the Party may conceivably prefer to reduce such trade to a minimum, the C.C.P. probably hopes that in the long run Hong Kong would continue to operate satisfactorily as an entrepot after being restored to Chinese sovereignty.
7.
At present the activities of the Communists in Hong Kong are aimed at increasing their influence and building up their organis- ation by covert means. There is no doubt that in the trade unions, youths, students' and women's organisations, and in schools, they have made progress in consolidating their position. They are known to control 43 schools and to have infiltrated 82 cut of a total of 850 (See Annex II). They have also already attained a considerable measure of control in at least 38 trade unions, and guilds, some of which are of great importance to Hong Kong's economy. They have been increasing their efforts to gain sympathisers to their cause and to influence public opinion against the Hong Kong Government. There is no precise informat- ion as to the strength of the Communist cadres or activists; the number is estimated to be about 2,000.
&
Information suggests that there is a body controlling C.C.P. activity in the Colony called the "Hong Kong Municipal Committee". Whilst the inner cabinet controlling this committee has not been identified they are said to be concerned with political direction only. There are said to be nine sections dealing with youth's, students', and womens' organisations, labour, culture, party administration, party organisation, finance, propaganda and liaison. It is not known whether the committee is responsible to the South China Bureau of the C.C.P. or directly to the Central Executive Committee (C.E.C.).
g.
Overtly, Communist activity is mainly confined to agitation by propaganda means against the Government, both from within the Colony and from China, and the security measures adopted by it. This campaign has become more aggressive during recent months but has not yet reached the point where the return of the New Territories to China is openly demanded. Nor are the Communists yet organised to influence the masses as a whole to the point of civil disorder.
10.
It is uncertain whether the return of Hong Kong forms part of the immediate plans of the C.C.P. and if so, whether the Communists envisage the use of force to supplement the internal agitation their organisation could arcuse. From a consideration of the reports available on the deliberations of the Peking Conference now sitting, the Communist Party Political Consultative Conference (C.P.P.C.C.) during the first 5 days session (up to and including 26th September), it is apparent that n mention has been made of a rendition of Hong Kong. By contrast, several delegates spoke of the need for the "liberation" of Tibet, Hainan and Formosa and for the unification of all"Chinese" territories. In view, however, of the fact that this session of the C.F.P.C.C. is probably nothin more than a public manifestation of approval of decisions already reached by the Preparatory Committee, omission of any mention of Hong Kong does not necessarily mean that a decision has not been taken.
11.
Documents seized in the Colony from the South China Bureau do nct disclose any intention to attack Hong Kong, but appear to envisage a period during which Hong Kong would be allowed to trade with a Communist China on its borders. Similarly in conversation Communist
TOP SECRET