10 October 1949
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JIC(FE) (49)41(Final)
ANNEX I
THE THREATS TO HONG KONG
GENERAL
1.
The threats to the Colony of Hong Kong can occur under three separate conditions and they may arise in sequence. They are as follows:-
(a) the present period when Communist intentions towards
Hong Kong have not yet been revealed;
(b)
the period following an open declaration of intention to secure the return of the Colony, with or without force;
(e)
in the event of a war between the Western Fowers, and a combination of the Soviet Union and the Chinese Communists.
2.
Hong Kong is a natural target for the xenophobia inherent in the Chinese character and is exposed to the envy of a poverty-stricken country anxious to share in a neighbour's prosperity. In addition to inheriting these influencos the Chinese Communists are actuated by an ideology which impels them to oppose the continuance of "capitalist exploitation" of China. Moreover, one of the primary aims of the Communists, both Russian and Chinese, is to damage the economy and prestige of the Western Powers. Long term considerations of strategical advantage, if not spontaneously acting on the Chinese Communist Party (C.C.P.), will be urged on them by the Soviet Government. The conclusion appears inescapable that the return of Hong Kong to China is an objective of the C.C.P.
3.
4.
The speed with which (b) will follow (a) depends upon: -
(i)
(ii)
the activities of the Communist organisation within Hong Kong;
the value which the C.C.P. hope to derive from Hong Kong while it continues under British rule; and
(iii) the degree of control exercised by the U.S.S.R. over
the Chinese Communists.
A war between the Soviet Union and the Western Powers in the period under review would undoubtedly result in the Chinese Communists being allied to the former. In such an event it is likely that the Chinese Communists would, in general, take their direction from the Soviet High Command, and that they would undertake an attack on the Colony.
COMMUNIST ACTIVITY IN AND LIKELY POLICY TOWARDS HONG KONG
5.
Hitherto Hong Kong as a British Colony has been of value to the Chinese Communist Party since the latter's underground organis- ation has been able to use it as a base for directing activities in South China and South East Asia, for recruiting and training workers and as a propaganda and liaison centre. The party has therefore been careful, so far, to avoid overt action which might lead the Hong Kong Government to take repressive measures against it.
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