10 October 1949
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Mr Sesl
181
JIC(FE) (49)41(Final)
BRITISH DEFENCE CO-ORDINATION COMMITTEE, FAR EAST
JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE, FAR EAST
THE THREATS TO HONG KONG
Report by the Joint Intelligence Committee, Far East
280
We have revised our previous report* on "The Threats to Hong Kong" and our report is at Annex I. At Annex II is a review by the Local Intelligence Committee, Hong Kong, of the Communist build up in the Colony.
2.
We have taken into account the comments of the Joint Intelligence Committee, London** on our previous report, together with intelligence received up to 9 September 1949 and have consulted the Local Intelligence Committee, Hong Kong. The period of the report extends to the end of 1950.
CONCLUSIONS
3.
(134) -
We conclude as follows:
(a)
The return of Hong Kong to China is one of the ultimate aims of the Chinese Communist Farty. But it is not certain that the Chinese Communists have yet reached any decision on when it is to be attempted or whether open aggression is to be used.
Immediate Communist plans.
(b) The evidence which we have, suggests that open aggression
is not among their immediate plans, but that during the present phase they will continue to evert existing means of pressure, reinforced by the deployment of their forces on the border.
(c)
(a)
Such means include a campaign of internal agitation, notably by propaganda and by the activity of agents in order to cause strikes and to suborn the loyalty of the police, local enlisted personnel and civilian employees of the Services; isolated attempts at sabotage and assassination; and the encouragement of banditry and the infiltration of new agents.
Their
¡Communist land forces may be expected to reach the border
in considerable strength by the end of November, though an advanced force may arrive in early November. purpose will be to test British reactions and lend support to banditry and subversive activities within the Colony.
* JIC(FE) (49) 21 (Final)
**
JIC/1260/49 dated 14 July 1949.
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