tempted by nationalistic ambitions, or alternatively by the possi- bility of an early conquest, to risk hostilities against the United Kingdom, it seems unlikely that they will undertake an attack upon
ng Kong for some time. Evidence of the British intention to resist y attack on Hong Kong would considerably reduce the likelihood of the Communists,deciding to attack the Colony. probably at least make an attempt to obtain its rendition by negotia-
In any case, they will tion before resorting to force.
6.
Since, however, the possibility of an early attack on Hong Kong cannot be ruled out entirely, we have estimated below its possible scale and nature.
POSSIBLE SCALE AND NATURE OF ATTACK
Internal Threat
7.
Should, therefore,
The threat of internal could be implemented by the Communists in co-ordination with an armed
unrest in Hong Kong always exists and attack from outside. The Hong Kong Trade Unions are likely under these circumstances to take orders from the Communist authorities in China; the police force may become unreliable; element in the Volunteer Forces may be disaffected.
and the Chinese the Communists decide to attack the Colony, labour unrest, strikes, demonstrations and mutiny are to be expected. that the Communists in Hong Kong may not wait for the armed assis- It appears possible tance of the Chinese Communist Army from the North, structed to cause a revolutionary situation in the Colony by the
but may be in- means mentioned above and this may well be assisted by the 80,000 Communists irregulars in the area.
8.
Should it be possible for the Communists to make any sea or air attacks on the Colony, their effect on the morale of the Hong Kong Chinese might be temporarily, at any rate, very serious. attacks would further greatly encourage internal strikes by Communist
Such controlled Unions.
9.
As a result of the Communist advance to the South the garrison of the Colony would have to contend with the internal security prob- lem created by an attempted large scale influx of rofugees.
Land Threat
10.
Although the Communists will have available a land force of the size described in paragraph 4 above, they would not be able to deploy all these forces against Hong Kong. limited by the narrowness and difficulties of the approaches to the
The landward threat would be frontier defences. We are unable to assess accurately the size of force that could be employed without local knowledge of the ground,jut we consider that it might amount to the equivalent of 2-3 divisions. In addition, there would undoubtedly be an attempt to land forces in various parts of the Colony by sea. available in the Canton River and Mirs Bay and may well be employed in
Large numbers of sampans will be trying to land troops on the Island of Hong Kong and behind the de- fence line in the New Territories. Communist Army have managed successfully to collect and man large
Recent evidence shows that the numbers of Local craft for river crossings elsewhere.
11.
The present Chinese Communist Armies bear no resemblance to any previous Chinese Army. standard of training is of a high order.
Their morale, discipline and commanders have also · shown
The Communist
that they
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