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(13096) (1) Wt. 41024-6515 30m 1/47 G.S.St. Gp. 620
TOP SECRET CYPHER TELEGRAM
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5. We think it unlikely that defections will be on a large scale since the bulk of the C.N.A.F. is now in Formosa. Even should they be so we do not envisage that control of its maintenance organisation will extend to permitting a daily scale of attack against Hong Kong by bombers to exceed that of the lower figure stated in (c) above with the possible exception of the initial attack. We must however expect a higher scale of attack by ground attack fighters when based on airfields in the Canton area. We consider however that these scales of effort will decline rapidly after the initial attacks due to lack of reserve backing and maintenance and on the assumption that our fighter defence is adequate.
6.
The operational efficiency and standard of training of the Communist air force is unlikely to be higher than that of the C.N.A.F. which can be rated low by British and American standards. ed with radar or trained to operate by night.
They would be unlikely to be equipp-
The Naval Threat.
7. No threat by enemy warships is anticipated but attacks on ships by saboteurs and limpeteers may be attempted.
Army Requirements.
8. Assuming a determined attack on the scale outlined in paragraph 2 the Army requirements are two complete infantry divisions, plus the following one armoured regiment. One medium regiment rising to one ACRA. of three medium regiments one composite observation battery and one corps counter bombardment troop should good evidence become available of the Communist ability to operate and maintain 400 guns in the attack. One infantry brigade. regiment rising to three regiments if there is evidence of
One H.A.A. the Communists being able to operate the higher number of aircraft given in paragraph 4. H.Q. R.A. and A.A. operations room. A.0.P. Squadron comprising squadron H.Qo and two type A and one type B flight. One mule company and less the following one divisional regiment R.A.C. one L.A.A. regiment.. One anti-tank regiment. Certain transport medical and ancillary units.
9.
Certain reductions in second line transport may be
possible.
10. Field Regiments should be on an eighteen gun establishment.
11. Requirements of the following are under examination specialised armour. Technical engineer units and plant. Craft. Air photo interpretation and air liaison units. Administrative headquarters and units. Air force require-
ments.
Two
12. (a) Four fighter squadrons for air defence close Support of the Army and the attack of enemy airfields. of these squadrons should be equipped with long range fighter aircraft. (b) One photographic reconnaissance
f