TOP SECRET
2 June 1949
..4..
JIC(FE)(49)21(Final)
Climate
13. Hong Kong and the adjacent mainland have a marked monsoon, general direction of the winds being from the north in the winter, and the south during the summer. Maximum rainfall for the year
Conditions are occurs during the May to September summer period. then warm and moist, and very heavy rain at times puts out of action many of the minor tracks. Visibility is sometimes reduced by the weather. The countryside is dry from September to April and visibility generally good, although even during this period, mist and low cloud occasionally stop flying and reduce visibility for three or four days at a time.
lasts from The typhoon season July to the beginning of October and during the close passage of a typhoon operations would be seriously hindered for two or three days.
THREATS DURING THE COLD WAR PERIOD
Deployment of Communist Forces
Shiuchow
14. The P.L.A. is at present engaged in the consolidation of the Yangtze Valley area including Shanghai, together with southward
Any southward thrusts into Chekiang, Kiangsi and Fukien provinces. drive extending into Kwangtung province, should that materialize, is likely to be carried out along two main axes; firstly from Hankow Changsha Canton and secondly from Nanchang area - Canton. The direct distances are 580 miles from Changsha and 450 miles from Nanchang. Such an advance, once started, is unlikely to meet any serious opposition from the Nationalists except possibly in the Changsha area. It is estimated that a force of five P.L.A. armies, supported by one artillery division and 100 tanks, could reach Canton from the Yangtze Valley area by rail within 36 days and by road within 105 days, provided that no serious opposition was met. The earliest daté by which this force might appear on the borders of Hong Kong would therefore be early July 1949.
15.
An estimated 50,000 bandit/guerillas exist in Kwangtung alone. These are considered to be sufficiently equipped, mobile and co-ordinated to be used in co-operation with regular P.L.A. formations in offensive operations, and in preparing the advance of the latter. It is unlikely that any armed bands will attempt to cross into, or operate within, the New Territories of Hong Kong without specific direction from the Communist Government, and such direction is unlikely before the P.L.A. occupies Kwangtung Province.
Putting on the Pressure
16.
the
During the period of consolidation in South China, Chinese Communists may well prefer to retain the value of the Colony as a trade entrepot rather than to attempt to attack its garrison. Should this be the case it is possible that the
TOP SECRET