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11.
Paragraph 33. The potential efficiency of the Nationalist Air Force appears to have been over-estimated. The Force is believed to possess approximately 100 reserves of aircraft and a large quantity of spares. However, even in the unlikely event of the whole of the Force defecting to the Communists it is improbable that any appreciable proportion of reserves or spares would be transferred from Formosa to the mainland. The Communists would therefore have difficulty in maintaining defecting aircraft, and the maximum serviceability to be expected would be about 20%. Few of the aircrew have much experience of operations, and their morale is likely to be low in the absence of suitable cash incentives. Fuel and ammunition supplies would also present a major problem in the absence of Soviet assistance. The effectiveness of the Force on defection would therefore be low, and even if fuel and ammunition were sufficient, it is unlikely that it would be able to operate at a greater intensity than 300 - 700 sorties per month. Even if the force operates from Formosa, with the benefit of its existing spares and maintenance organisation, it is unlikely that it would achieve more than 1,400 sorties per month. These rates would be decreased by casualties.
12. Paragraph 35. The air threat to Hong Kong would also appear to have been over-estimated. Even if the whole of the Nationalist Air Force defeots it is unlikely that the size of the initial raid would exceed:
Fighter bomber Medium bomber
Heavy bomber
70 aircraft
30 aircraft
12 aircraft
The highest rate that could be expected subsequently assuming 10% casualties on the first raid is likely to be of the order of:
Fighter bomber Medium bomber
1,000 250
Heavy bomber
25
}
Sorties per month.
13.
Paragraph 38. According to the latest assessment* the Communist naval strength shown in paragraph 38 appears to be out of date. J.I.C. (FE) will however in the meantime have received the fortnightly review containing the new figures.
* J.I.C. (49) 411/5
J.I.C. (49) 44 Series.
m5mm
94000135"
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