ANNEX I
Copy of telegram No.1068, dated 23rd November, 1948
from Hong Kong to Colonial Office
Your telegram No. 1162.
China situation
I do not (repeat not) anticipate refugee influx on big scale at the moment but am aware position could be changed at short notice. Those who are coming in at the present are able to look after themselves. If Communist armies drive through to South China following are possibilities
2.
(a) More or less peaceful occupation of towns and
country with comparatively few refugees coming to Hong Kong,
(b) Rape of Shanghai or other cities leading to large
influx into Hong Kong of town folk from Canton, mainly by river stoamer and junk and railway (as long as wo permit its running). They would probably not (ropoat not) come across the border in numbers as some (corrupt group ?points) across the border are already controlled by Communist guerillas who would have little difficulty in gaining control of border area without disturbing local peasant population,
(c)
Communists deliberately driving into Hong Kong large mass of urban refugees in order to create chaos inside the Colony.
Under
Military assistance would almost certainly be required under (c) above, as there would probably be simultaneous Communist inspired strikes and unrest. (a) and (b), police would probably be able to cope, unless there were simultaneous Communist inspired strikes.
3. As regards caring for Chinese refugees, position is that since reoccupation a refugee population of nearly three quarters of a million has already been built up. Further influx would be an aggravation of this problem. Any idea of housing and fooding oxisting refugees free has already been ruled out on the ground of impracticability and expense.
Hospital camps up to 3,000, could however be got going in two to three weeks. If housing and food were provided, effect would be to increase influx. We must therefore discourage any idea that Hong Kong will provide a refuge where they will be cared for. If I.R.0. shows any signs of taking an interest in the matter, I should be grateful if they could be told that any camps they set up must be in Chinese territory. Water supply alone would be quite inadequate for increased population. If large influx starts, my only course would be to close border as soon as possible, with military assistance if necessary, to protect food and water and health of existing population and refugees.
4.
Since drafting the abovo I have received your telegram No. 1193 to which I shall shortly reply. Whilst situation in China has unpleasant possibilities for Hong Kong, there is no (repeat no) need for alarm at prosent.
• 2