Typex
INWARD TELEGRAM
This document must be paraphrased if the communication of its contents to any person outside Government Service is authorised.
TO THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR THE COLONIES
19
COPY FOR
FROM HONG KONG (Sir A. Grantham)
D. 11th July, 194
1949
R. 11th
te
13.50 hrs.
13
JUL
1949
!
No. 699 Secret
Addressed to S. of S.
Repeated Commissioner-General Singapore saving.
(12) My telegram No. 566.
Chinese Refugees.
Developments of last few weeks, in particular Nationalist closure of communist held ports, necessitates some revision of the appreciation given in my telegram under reference.
2.
The closure of ports has prevented ships going to Shanghai. Further it appears to be creating adverse economic conditions in communist China which may deter those Chinese who might otherwise have returned. Some ships are likely to run the blockade to Tientsin but they would not carry many passengers. Number wishing to return to Shanghai is much greater.
3. Influx into Hong Kong for last four weeks shows definite downward tendency despite influx of over 4,000 for week before last. It is possible that blockade may delay preparations for communist southward drive but it may equally well lead communists to speed up their plans to capture Canton. Present breathing spell, however, is giving opportunity for rich merchants from big cities like Changsha and Wuchow to come to Hong Kong in view of stagnant trading conditions in China. Floods in Hunan and Kwangtung may seriously affect rice harvest thus causing increasing number of persons coming to Hong Kong although at present rice prices in Kwangtung seem relatively stable.
40 In view of the above considerations I expect influx to continue at present but on a reduced scale and it may turn
/to