00247
N
Ref.:
CO 537/1260
THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES
restrictions. Further information is given in the enclosed "Terms and Conditions of supply of National Archives' leaflet.
Please note that this copy is supplied subject to the National Archives' terms and conditions and that your use of it may be subject to copyright
PROBABLE FORS OF ATTACK
7. Attack: () and (1) are only likely in the future if open hostilities break out with the Central Government, as their armies are the only forces well equipped with modern arms, including aircraft and transport. These weapons would not in all probability be available to a Provincial War Lord, should one rise in Southern China to challenge the rule of Chiang Kai-shek.
8.
The probability or (0) is likely to increase in the event of (a), (E) or (F) occurring.
9. Attack (L) is mout inprobrble and civil war might even decronso rather than increase its probability, since the leading protagoniste will be too concerned with their own struggle to worry about an external issue, and might in fact be encourged to leave Hong Kong well alone in order to conserve long Kong as a refuge in the event of their defeat. On the other hand, in the event of civil war, strong military and police patrol of the frontier would be necessary to prevent the influx of armed deserters,
10. Of all forms of attack (E) remoted out in conjunction with (F), is the most likely and at the same time is the most difficult to meto The movement of Chinese to and from liong Kong cannot be controlled and, at the present morient, entrie
The Petery xceed departures
by about 30,000 Chinose per month.
11. Similarly eyes up to and including light machine guns and small morters can be smuggled into the Colony in large quentities. Further, this form or attack is in keeping with the Chinese character and history.
INTELLIGENCE ORGANISATION.
12. As regards U.-in-C,, hong Kong's recommendation regarding an intelligence organise tion, we agree that a Joint Intelligence Committee should be maintained in Hong Kong; Civil authorities to be represented as well
as the three Services. We agree that services of reliable agents for reporting from the mainland are essential, and suggest further that close liaison be maintained with II.M. Embassy in Chine by the appointment either of an Embassy official to be attached to the Hong Kong Government, or of a 14nison o: Eiser who would travel between Hong Kong and the Chi..ose capital and report on subversivo movements of any kind directed against the Colony from China.
I
Offices of the Cabinet and
Minister of Der'once, S.,1.
22nd January, 1946-
-7-
N
Ref:
CO 537/1260
THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES
restrictions. Further information is given in the enclosed Terms and Conditions of supply of National Archives' leaflet
Please note that this copy is supplied subject to the National Archives' terms and conditions and that your use of it may be subject to copyright