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year to meet any expenditure which may arise. In other words it is rather more than a forecast which we have now to give to the Treasury.
I am by no means clear from the foregoing minutes that expenditure will in fact start during 1952/53. Unless there is a reasonable prospect of it doing so then we could do no more in the draft estimate than repeat the token provision of £10 included for this year leaving the question of making available larger sums when a clearer picture of the progress of the work can be secured.
It is therefore necessary for me to have an accurate picture of probable expenditure during 1952/53. It is also necessary for a letter in justification of any provision required ng libe sent to the Treasury before the 1st December.
As regards 1953/54 and 1954/55 I should be quite prepared to accept a forecast of expendi ture amounting to £500,000 in each of those years. No question of provision yet arises in those years and all that the Treasury are seeking to obtain is a general indication of the size of the vote for those years.
It seems to me, therefore, that we must now seek definite information either from the Governor or from the Ministry of Civil Aviation as to the likelihood of expenditure actually being incurred during 1952/53 for which the Government of Hong will need to draw on the promisedloan from
us.
To the extent that we can be satisfied that a drawing will be required then we can press the Treasury to allow us to include provision in the estimate. The figure decided upon may be more or less than the £500,000 which we had previously forecast. This would be quite understandable to the Treasury since that figure was mere guess work.
If as
a result of these enquiries it appears that there is little likelihood of the work getting well under way during 1952/53 then it will probably suffice for us to repeat the token provision of £10 made in this year's vote. This has the advantage of keeping the matter before Parliament and in the event of the Government of Hong Kong suddenly requiring funds, for the vote to make provision accordingly and for us to be able to make an immediate issue as soon as the vote is available to us. If this token provision is dropped then the provision when made in the subsequent year becomes a new service and must await approval of Parliament half way through the year before any issue can be made. This might conceivably be a slight disadvantage from the Colonial Government's point of view.
I should be grateful if you could consider the matter in the light of the above explanation. If there is any further information which you would like to have would you please let me know.
Авир
18th October, 1951.
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