ypex
INWARD TELEGRAM
242
This document must be paraphrased if the communication of its contents to any person outside Government Service is authorised.
TO THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR THE COLONIES
FROM HONG KONG (Sir A. Grantham)
D. 10th June, 1949. R. 10th
13.00 hrs.
No.566
Secret.
Addressed to 8. of 8.
Repeated to Deputy Commissioner General
(Colonial Affairs) by savingram.
Your telegram No.652.
Chinese refugees.
As stated in my telegram No.514 net increase over last six monthe is about 118,000. The Colony could absorb further 150,000 approximately before facilities in the way of rator, fuel and accommodation would be strained to the utmost. So far as water is concerned (which in dry winter months is most serious problem) summer rains have already started. Arrivals over last six months are either,
2
(a) Refugees with some capital of their own who are able to live with friends or relatives, or
(b) Poor refugees of coolie or artisan class who live in squatters areas (which are still
Most expanding and are periodically cleared up). of them come within category (a).
Croasing of frontier would not (repeat not) prevent infiltration of Communists.
3. Comparative peaceful takeover of Shanghal by Communists will make Chinese in South China less likely to leave their homes than if the olty had been raped. Return trend towards Shanghai is already evident. They are anxious to get home if for no other reason than they find Hong Kong too expensive. Net influx last week just under 4,000. If therefore policy of Communista on taking over new areas continues as it has to date, I do not anticipate large influx of refugees. It is however always possibility. Greatest danger as I see it is in deserting or defeated Nationalist soldiers whom we should disarm and push back over the frontie: as quickly as possible. Approximately 3,000 from Amoy and Swatow have already been received, disarmed and returned to China.
40 Position therefora is that there is still a long way to go before we reach saturation point and whilst there are few things I should like to see better than decrease in population let alone csssation of increase, there is really no half way house (except reducing number of trains from Canton) between present open door policy and shutting door