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(66) The probabilities are that for a considerable time the balance of United Kingdom tråde must shift in the direction of reducing imports, and increasing exports, in value. In the past the ratio of weight to value has been higher for imports than for exports, with the result that the expected shift will reduce the total tonnage passing through the ports. This reduction may be considerable in volume. It may be accentuated by the maintenance of home agriculture at a higher level than before the war with a consequent fall in imports of foodstuffs, and by the continued use of home-produced substitutes for imported raw materials. It may also be accentuated by the expansion in industrial capacity of countries previously importing from the United Kingdom. On the other hand the reduction in overseas imports of foodstuffs may for some years be counter-balanced by imports of certain raw materials, particularly timber. Air transport will reduce passenger traffic, and improved roads may further eat into the coastwise trade, though this factor will not be important in Western Scotland owing to its configuration. Moreover, it seems unlikely that coal exports will be restored to the pre-war level, at least for some time.
On the other hand, the cessation of hostilities will doubtless be followed by a post-war boom of a certain duration; and, even after this temporary phase has passed, it appears to be generally held that, by one method or another, it will be essential in the interests of future world prosperity to achieve a wide and free interchange of commodities, and that, given a settled international situation, such an interchange will be attained.
(67) Balancing the restrictive against the expansionist tendencies to the best of our ability, we can find no solid ground for believing that the total volume of trade passing through British ports is likely to exceed the pre-war level substantially in the predictable future. The 1939 dock accommodation is still available (apart from war damage), and extra dock accommodation has been created since 1940 (notably on the Clyde) to deal with emergency traffic and to provide a reserve. It follows that, taking Great Britain as a whole and the Clyde in particular, the case for immediate large-scale new construc- tion to meet increased national needs is not made out.
It is, however, equally plain that, in order to cheapen and expedite the handling of traffic in the difficult days that lie ahead, a great deal will have to be done in improving and modernising obsolete or obsolescent facilities, and even in rearranging and re-siting certain facilities for the better service of new or expanded industrial areas. The broad conclusion is that what Great Britain at present needs is not more ports but better ports.
(68) Within the Clyde group of ports it is plain that the six ports have come to differ widely in importance and function. Well before the war Irvine, Troon and Ayr had become predominantly specialist ports, catering for two main industries of the Ayrshire hinterland, coal and chemicals. Glasgow, Greenock and Ardrossan have remained general ports, but with a growing tendency for imports of a limited class to form the bulk of the trade at Greenock, and to a lesser extent at Ardrossan,
(69) The controlling factor in the development of the Clyde, as of so many other river ports in Great Britain and in other parts of the world, has evidently been the determination of the merchants and shippers to arrange for their goods to be discharged or loaded as near as possible to the commercial centre; and the shipowners naturally endeavour to meet their customers' desires. This determination has prevailed over the drawbacks arising from the delays and expense associated with the creation, maintenance and navi- gation of many miles of narrow channels or ship canals.
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New factors have latterly come into play and may grow in weight. The general employment for ocean trade of large ships with the consequent need for a quick turn round; the increasing congestion of central urban districts and the demand for their re-planning; the improvements in inland transport, especially by road; the re-siting of industrial areas and the planned location of new industries; these and other causes are likely in time to push docks further down rivers in order to be in proximity to new development areas and to be nearer to open water.
(70) On the Clyde the up-stream tendency has operated for over a century with immense advantages to Glasgow and the industrial and commercial districts in its vicinity. The turn of the tide is already visible in the construc- tion lower down the river of the King George V Dock, which was opened in 1931, and which by general consent will compare favourably with any deep- water basin in the world. The long-term plans of the Clyde Navigation Trustees make provision for the eventual construction of two more similar basins and other works in the same area.
We have failed however to discover any grounds for concluding that the reversal of the up-stream tendency is yet pronounced, or that it will rapidly gather strength. On the contrary the general demand for access to upper berths has not relaxed, and, so far as we can judge, it rests not on a mere preference for past practice and tradition but on sound commercial considera- tions of over-all convenience and economy, taking into account not only the ship's charges but the whole expense of conveying goods from or to their point of origin or ultimate destination. We received representations from the dock labour employers that in their view it would be better for trade to recon- struct the upper docks than to build new docks in the Shieldhall area.
(71) We mention these considerations as a corrective of the assumptions underlying the extreme proposal that large ships should no longer be brought up rivers or ship canals, but should be accommodated at new ports to be constructed on sites free from maritime disadvantages. On the Clyde such a policy raises many serious questions, to some of which we shall revert in the sequel. Meantime we can only observe that one of the first duties of a port authority is to provide the type of accommodation which its customers want, or are likely to want within a reasonable time and to provide the accommoda- tion at, or as near as possible to, the places where they desire the facilities, and that, while a careful eye must be turned to more distant objectives, it would be disastrous to attempt prematurely to divert the flow of trade into new channels. There are examples in this country and in other parts of the world to show that the provision of dock accommodation which, though ideal for the reception of vessels, is inconvenient to the merchants and shippers can only lead to financial ruin.
THE FINANCIAL STRUCTURE OF THE CLYDE PORTS
(72) An accountancy investigation into this subject would be beyond our powers and foreign to our purpose, but we desire to record the broad results of our own examination of the position.
In the case of the railway ports of Ayr and Troon, the disintegration of the figures is barely practicable, especially at Ayr, where the railways are provided and operated as part of the railway undertaking and not as part of the statutory dock undertaking. We therefore content ourselves by noting that, according to the latest available accounts, the capital expenditure at Ayr stood at £479,236 and at Troon at £216,717.
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