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Government also have made little or no progress with the reforms indicated in my despatch under reference, and there have, moreover, been serious difficulties over dislocation of the labour market owing to the war, and a series of infractions against the system of State economic control.
5. Anxious about the prospects of criticism against maladministration during the coming session of the Diet, and seeing no further prospect of laying down office, Prince Konoye appears to have instructed a Cabinet Committee composed of Admiral Suetsugu, Mr. Shiono and Marquis Kido, Ministers of Home Affairs, Justice and Welfare respectively, which had been set up to examine the reform of the civil service, to explore the possibility of encouraging a new political party. This they did on the 11th and the 21st October, after which indirect approaches were made to certain party leaders. Admiral Suetsugu and Mr. Shiono are both prominent Nationalists, and Marquis Kido, the political adviser and confidant of the Prime Minister, would be the one man who could persuade Prince Konoye to come forward.
6. These developments produced an immediate reaction from the established parties. The Minseito and the Seivukai fell into line with the Government's programme by organising a joint national spiritual mobilisation campaign on a nation-wide scale. This campaign was launched at a mass meeting in Tokyo on the 15th November, and meetings are to be held at 500 cities and towns throughout Japan. The theme of the speeches is to be to the effect that the China incident will begin with the end of the war; the general application of the National Mobilisation Law is inevitable, and the strengthening of the system of State economic control must be supported; national unity is essential to surmount the crisis, &c. The Social Mass party and the other minority groups were invited to join this campaign, but they refused.
7. This display of zeal appears to have been sufficient to counter the various new party agitations which have been mentioned above, and which are directed primarily against the established parties. It is in any case doubtful whether the Minseito and the Seiyukai would consent to liquidate their history of fifty years in the absence of substantial guarantees as to future policy, and it is under- stood that the overtures, made to their party leaders by the Cabinet Committee (paragraph 5 above) were not at all favourably received. Nevertheless, it has been estimated that a new party, such as that advocated by Mr. Akiyama, would, under the leadership of the Prime Minister, immediately secure from 250 to 300 seats, or approximately half the seats in the House of Representatives. But the Right Wing groups themselves are far from united, and it is understood that the exclusion of General Araki, a leader of the Young Men's Associations, from the discussions in the Cabinet Committee has given rise to friction. Moreover, the association of Mr. Akiyama's movement with the young leaders of the Social Mass party has widely discredited it. It is by no means certain therefore that the atmosphere in the Lower House would be improved by the creation of such a party.
8. For these reasons, it is questionable whether the Prime Minister would find a solution of his difficulties in the creation of any new party on such lines, and it may safely be said that the idea has already been abandoned, as on previous occasions. It remains to be seen whether Prince Konoye and his advisers will be satisfied with the political campaign spontaneously instituted by the two major parties. He has throughout insisted that the initiative in the formation of a new party must come from below, so as to provide a genuinely effective link between Government and people. It is, therefore, possible that Prince Konoye may yet proceed with an elaboration of Mr. Kuhara's idea of a "National Council" which would be based upon the existing political, cultural and economic associa- tions and co-operative societies. There have been suggestions in certain sections. of the press that the Prime Minister actually favours the creation of such a council; but its organisation would indeed constitute a most formidable task, especially if it were intended that it should be of assistance to the Government during the coming session of the Diet.
I have, &c.
R. L. CRAIGIE.
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