THIS DOCUMENT IS THE PROPERTY OF HIS BRITANNIC MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT
FAR EASTERN (JAPAN).
CONFIDENTIAL.
July 6, 1939.
SECTION 4.
[F 6912/456/23]
Sir R. Craigie to Viscount Halifax.—(Received July 6.)
Copy No. 139
(No. 409.) My Lord,
Tokyo, June 3, 1939. WITH reference to my despatch No. 342 of the 1st May and to the series of telegrams (ending with my telegram No. 487 of the 26th May) which I have recently had the honour to address to your Lordship on the subject of the discussions which have been taking place in this country in regard to a strengthening" of the anti-Comintern pact, it may, I think, be of interest if I endeavour to fill in the background, as seen here, of the picture presented by the events of the past month, with the main outline of which your Lordship is already familiar.
2. In the first place there can be no doubt that the Japanese Government have been subjected to tremendous pressure from the Axis Powers, principally Germany, with the object of forcing upon it a decision definitely to take sides with them in the struggle against the democracies and to proceed to the conclusion of a military alliance. The arguments used by Japan's new friends can easily be guessed. She would in the event of a world war be left with a more or less free hand in the Far East and would be able without molestation to pursue her designs in China and to see the fulfilment of her aspirations for an extension of her influence to the South. These arguments accord well with the desires of a section of the army, which, strongly backed by the reactionary_elements, believes that the outbreak of a second European war would give Japan the opportunity for which she is looking of disposing once and for all of such baffling problems as that of the international settlements, of bringing to an end the conflict with China and of imposing her will upon that country.
3. Fortunately, however, there has not been wanting a strong body of opinion in favour of moderation. There is in Japan a disinclination to become involved unnecessarily in European affairs, which has been especially marked since Japan decided to leave the League of Nations. It is realised in many quarters that to fall in with the wishes of the Axis Powers would entail a reversal of the policy of the last few years and that the advantages to be derived from such a course would not outweigh the disadvantages. It is known that economically Japan can expect little in the way of assistance from Germany or Italy, and it is fairly generally admitted in financial circles that without British and American capital it is impossible for Japan to develop at least in the near future the resources of China and to derive from that country profits pro- portionate to the immense sacrifices of life and money which have been made during the last two years. There is, moreover, increasing anxiety as to the financial stability of the country from an international point of view and a general desire to bring the "incident" to a close as soon as possible. Finally, there is the well-grounded fear that a closer relationship with the Axis Powers will sooner or later bring Japan into armed conflict with the United States of America―an eventuality which the Japanese are determined to avoid at almost any cost. All these arguments have doubtless been urged with all the force at their command by such men as Mr. Ikeda, the former Minister of Finance, and other leaders of the financial and business world, who are well aware of the direction in which Japan's true interests lie.
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4. At the same time there is in Japan such a deep-rooted antipathy to communism and distrust of the U.S.S.R., especially as a result of the part which that country is believed to have had in the origin of the present incident,' that there is now little opposition to the Anti-Comintern pact as it stands, while it is almost taken for granted that it must, if necessary, be further strengthened, provided that this is done in such a way as to limit the scope of the agreement to the political and economic sphere and without further antagonising the Democracies. This feeling is reflected in various statements on the subject made
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