NO DISTRIBUTION.
Decypher.
Mr. Allen, (Shanghai).
October 21st, 1938.
D.
R.
7.42.p.m.
(by wireless) October 21st, 1938.
October 22nd, 1938.
No. 1513.
-o0o-
6
Following from Air Attaché with reference to his telegram
A.83 of September 29th to the Air Ministry. Begins:
Although operations at Hankow and Canton appear to be
rapidly approaching vital stage Chinese Air Force have not been
in action for several days in spite of recent Soviet reinforse-
ments. Reliable information received so far from Hankow
states that Chiang Kai-shek now unable to keep promise to
defend Hankow owing to shortage of trained troops and has handed
over the defence to the Garrison Commander. The Soviet have
consequently withdrawn air and other assistance which is in my
opinion transferred to Chinese Communist Forces in the northern
provinces. Morale deteriorating at Hankow. Some of the
Chinese divisions operating north of Hankow on Pinghan Railway
will retire and join Communist Forces. Believe that there is
much dissatisfaction in South China regarding lack of help from
Central Government in defence of Canton.
Possible course of the present operations is:-
A. Chiang Kai-shek will retire with Central Government
troops and Chinese portion of Air Force to western provinces.
B. The Soviet will maintain assistance to Chinese Com- munist armies in North China which will be reinforced from divisions now defending Hankow.
C. Defection of Kwangtung from the Central Government with possibility of patched up peace with Japan. Ends.
Addressed to Foreign Office No. 1513 October 21st (Foreign Office please pass to the Air Ministry) repeated to Hongkong No. 275 (for His Majesty's Ambassador).