40

and would

to reduce Hong Kong's powers of competition with Shanghai

in such matters as shipping repairs and port services

generally, for which there is always keen competition.

It would also reduce the competitive powers of Hong Kong's

ies

manufacturing industry, both in China and still more in

fore

reign countries, by revising the cost of certain raw materials, Merely to some

Other Implications of a Customs Union. stat Extent countract, the advantage refoner 5. to at the beginning of paragraph 7.

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Politically, a Customs Union must mean some loss

of sovereignty and must strengthen the tendency of

Chinese politicians to assimilate the position of Hong

Kong to that of a treaty port and to look forward to an

eventual time when Hong Kong as well as the treaty ports will

revert to the full control of China.

10. It has been assumed that purely administrative

difficulties, although considerable, could, with goodwill,

be surmounted; but an extremely difficult politico-

financial problem would arise. On what basis would the

revenue collected in Hong Kong be divided between the

Colony and China? That might be theoretically capable

of solution, but it is certain that the position would give rise to endless wrangling, as it is impossible to say precisely how much of Hong Kong's imports are intended for consumption

in the Colony.

II.

as

in ship attached

The Alternative of a Customs Agreement.

11.

On balance, therefore, it seems improbable

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that a full Customs union would be in the Colony's interests The two things Hong Kong wants from China are free entry for

Hong Kong manufactured goods and increased facilities for

the conduct of Chinese coastal trade through Hong Kong. The

first is not likely to be conceded except at an extortionate

price; the second might well be obtained as part of an

I even if it

were thought to be

discable, there are grave doubts whether it could be effected.

agreement

6

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