CONCLUSIONS
45.
From this paper it will be seen that in the labour field the communist
strength has been decimated
in the essential services, that a considerable number of
union members remain in key industries and the Government Service but
that they are almost completely dormant at
the present time. The student population of the communist, schools has
decreased slightly and once again more attention is being paid to
academic study. The planned communist expansion in this field has been
stopped at least for the time being. The communist press has become
largely discredited but its propaganda still reaches a large section of
the population. Other communist
propaganda media have suffered reverses during the last
nine months but are gradually recovering their former position. This
applies also to local communist commercial and financial organisations.
46.
+
The communists have in hand a widespread
united front campaign in an attempt to win back their
supporters who deserted them during confrontation and
to expand their influence in the Colony. Basically, there
is now in being a battle for the "hearts and minds" of
the population between the communists on the one hand
and Government on the other. Much depends upon the ability of Government
to win this battle and maintain
the confidence of the people and to persuade them to continue standing
up for themselves in resisting the
mixture of wooing and veiled intimidation on the part
of the communists. At all times the image of "big
/brother.....
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>
SONITE *.7, 417
TOP SECRET
Page 26
brother on the mainland" looms large and has a very definite bearing on
the reactions of the local populace. However, arising from the
considerable confidence which the public gained during confrontation,
not only in themselves but in Government's ability to contain communism,
it may be, of course, that they are now better equipped to withstand
communist pressure, whatever its form.
47.
So far the communist efforts to widen their base of support do not seem
to be meeting with much success. Nevertheless, the morale of their own
supporters is rising steadily and the local communist movement should
not be underestimated; it has shrewd and clever leaders and although
their machine was disorganised
and badly battered by its experiences in confrontation, it is by no
means broken and still represents a considerable security threat to the
Colony.
48.
With their present support it is considered
most unlikely that in the immediate future the communist leaders will
have either the desire or capability to stage a major prolonged
confrontation with Government on the ground or to mount effective strike
action. They do, nevertheless, have the potential to maintain a certain
degree of tension and, at the same time, the capability to conduct a
long term insidious campaign to undermine Government. Nevertheless, it
may well be many years before they can hope to achieve the same degree
of influence they had in the period immediately prior to confrontation;
in some areas they may never reach the same position again.
/49......
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1170
49.
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Page 27
As always, everything depends upon the attitude
of China. At present the policy of the Peking Government is to pursue a
non-violent long term campaign to undermine
the authority of the Hong Kong Government. Throughout
the last nine months support from China for local
communists has been restricted to propaganda and limited
financial aid, and this seems likely to continue so long
as the economic value of the Colony remains an over-
riding factor in the eyes of Peking. However, there can
be little doubt that the halt to violence called by
Peking in December, 1967, resulted in frustration and
resentment among those local militant communists who had
hoped for an early "Macau type" victory over the Hong
Kong Government, and this may be shared also by some officials in
Kwangtung. So far there is no evidence to
suggest that they are not under firm control, but they
could well exploit a local incident to the extent that
China, might, albeit unwillingly, give her blessing to
a resumption of violence. Any serious deterioration of
the situation would clearly cause the C.P.G. to reassess
her policy towards the Colony and a military threat could
develop. In the final analysis, however, if China wished
to apply hard pressure she has many options not yet used
which could force the Government of Hong Kong to abdicate.
Additionally, once it became clear to the local populace
that China was giving whole hearted support to the local
communists' "struggle", there is little doubt that a
large number of the "fence-sitters" would line up behind
the communist cause.
50.
There has been no attempt to assess the
counter-measures which should be used by Government to
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I
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Page 28 of 28 Pages
combat the long-term communist threat as they are
considered to be beyond the scope of this paper. It is
felt, however, that there is a need for a serious study
to be made of the resources currently available to
Government for this purpose and whether or not these
need re-deploying or intensifying to obtain the desired
objective, namely containing the threat posed by the
local communists.
-000-
t
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1
I
·
1
GEN/14/36B/50
ESTIMATED COMMUNIST STRENGTH IN HONG KONG
-
SECRET
Unions
Paid-up/active membership
Schools
Students
Staff
Press & Publishing
Commerce & Banking
APPENDIX 'A'
1967 - 1968.
March 1967 March 1962
60,065
33,204
19,598
18,227
800
778
1,570
1,570
7,000
7,000
510
510
Film companies & Distributors
Associations
Paid-up/active membership
Chinese General Chamber of
4,351
Commerce
4,008
Chinese Reform Association
2,100
300
Athletic Associations
1,260
300
Music & Dancing Associations
1,000
250
Total:
98,254
66,148
203(60 G.P. 314
SECRET
GEN/14/368/50
1967
-
1968
COMPARATIVE LABOUR FIGURES
GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENTS
APPENDIX 'B' (i)
0.7. 121
CONFIDENTIAL
Department/Sub- Department
Approx. Labour Force
Communist Union Membersnip
Pre-Strike
Now
Dismissed
Pre-Strike
Now
Currently Active
Post Office
1,688
1,668
151
450
310
NIL
G.E.M.E. (P.W.D.)
2,421
2,230
264
710
510
40
Waterworks (P.W.D.)
2,325
2,256
279
778
588
30
Marine Department
1,187
897
312
469
200
NIL
U.S.D.
12,470
10,500
470
3,150
2,750
200
Resettlement Dept.
500
463
37
80
60
5
(Labourers)
Civil Engineering
1,500
1,381
119
780
660
(P.W.D.)
50
CONFIDENTIAL
Total:
22,091
19,415
1,632
6,417
5,078
325
I
.
i
.
.
I
F
GEN/14/368/50
COMPARATIVE LABOUR FIGURES 1967-1968 PUBLIC TRANSPORT, UTILITY AND
DOCKYARDS
APPENDIX 'B' (ii)
BUT TOGE
6.7. 19
CONFIDENTIAL
Company
Labour Force "Pre-Strike Now
Dismissed
Communist Union MemLarchip
Pre-Strike
Now
Currently Active
Kowloon Motor Bus
7,227
5,000
4,907
3,100
50
NIL
China Motor Bus
2,280 1,400
1,273
600
15
25
Tranway Company
1,630
1,230
679
640
30
NIL
H.K. & Yaumati Ferry
1,800
1,700
115
350
220
100
Star Ferry
582
454
200
260
40
NIL
H.K. Telephone Co
3,900
4,180
170
900
600
NIL
H.K. Electric
978
848
136
680
380
30
China Light &Power Co.
1,895
1,500
659
600
200
NIL
H.K. China Gas Co.
548
384
164
450
200
4
Kowloon Docks
3,000
2,300
530
1,000
200
Taikoo Docks
3,580
3,800
186
1,700
1,500
Kowloon Wharf
1,645
1,621
530
400
150
8 8 8
60
30
50
CONFIDENTIAL
Total:
!
29,065
24,417
9,549
10,680
3,585
299
GEN/14/368/50
APPENDIX 'B' (iii)
COMPARATIVE LABOUR FIGURES
-
1967-1968
HARBOUR AND SHIPPING FACILITIES
G.F. 133
Facility
Labour Force
Pre-Strike
Now
Dismissed/ Strikers
Communist Union Membez ship
Pre-Strike
Now Curently Active
Lighterage
2,000
2,000
100
389
389
200
Coxswains
5,000
5,000
350
915
915
100
Cargo Supervisors
2,500
2,500
600
1,312
1,312
600
Ship Paint Scrapers
3,000
3,000
200
239
239
200
Stevedores
3,000
3,000
1,000
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
1,000
(working in
ccmmunist companies no communist union in this field)
550
(in H.K.)
Seamen
75,000
75,000
450
26,727
26,727
Total:
90,500
90,500
2,700
29,562
29,582
2,650
T
GEN/14/368/50
COMPARATIVE LABOUR FIGURES 1967-1968
LIGHT INDUSTRY
APPENDIX 'B' (iv)
** 79% * HETERO
Company
Labour Force
Pre-Strike
Now
Dismissed
Communist Union Membership
Pre-Strike
Now
Currently Active
Textile Companies
93,500
93,500
500
14,500
14,000
500
Dairy Farm
1,200
1,000
300
550
250
40
Taikoo Sugar
400
340
74
150
70
10
Shell Co. (H.K.) Ltd.
1,500
1,500
NIL
700
700
NIL
Total:
96,600
96,340
874
15,900
15,020
550
CONFIDENTIAL
1
r
+
i
11
}
י
CONFIDENTIAL
GEN/14/368/50
C
APPENDIX 'C'
COMPARATIVE ENROLMENT FIGURES FOR COMMUNIST SCHOOLS
►
1967-1968.
8083230
G.F. 195
Kindergarten
Primary
Secondary
Vocational
Apl.
Jan. Change Apl 167 *68
•
Jan. Change] Apl.
Jan.
'67
'68
'67
168
Change | Apl. 167 168
Jan
4
Change | Apl '67
Total
Jan.
168
Change
Middle Schools (12)
426 447
+21 4184