January 17, 1930]
CHINA OVERLAND TRADE REPORT
0775
March 26
25
51% 51%
April.. 25.15-16 25.5-16
51% 51%
May... 25
248
53% 5%
June.. 24.9-16 24
51% 51%
ANOTHER SLUMP IN
THE DOLLAR.
EXPERT SAYS TRADE REVIVAL IS
REMEDY.
PROSPEROUS CHINA WOULD NEED SILVER.
SOME RECORDS OF THE DOLLAR'S
PAST.
July... 24.13-16 23.15-16 5% 5%
Aug.... 24.7-16
24.3-16
53% 5%
Sept... 24.3-16
23.5-16
63% 5%
Oct.... 23.5-16
221
61% 6%
22!
6% 51%
Nov.... 23
Dec.... 22.11-16 21.5-16 51% 5%
The Quarterly Averages for the last two years have been:-
1929.
1928. 1st quarter.....1/11.29.32 2/0.3-16 2nd quarter.. .1/11.7-32 2/0.13-32 3rd quarter. .1/11.1-16 2/0.3-32 4th quarter.....1/8.9-16 2/0.7-32 Half Year Averages.
1st half..
1929.
1928.
.1/11.9-16 2/0.9-32
On Jan. 9 the T.T. rate of the Hong Kong dollar was 1/6 d., which touches the low-water mark of its value, recorded at the end of the year, 1902.
Very bitter comment is being made in all business circles on the action of the banks in forcing local currency down to the silver basis.
economic revival would not see the dollar recover.
Political Chaos the Cause.
The whole trouble is the chaos in China. Of course, Shanghai is flooded with dollars; a recent letter from there puts it at 200 million dollars, half sycee or bars, and half in minted dollars. (Mr. Hynes' "No one
estimate were benefits except the figures-also an banks," said a recognised local ex- total of 230 millions). But I do pert in the current question, to our believe there is a shortage of silver representative. It would have been
up country. It has not been safe very much better to leave things | to ship it for years, and Manchuria as they were and keep the silver in particular is crying out for silver. dollar out of the place. No one When you get famine and war de- wants silver. No European country vastation, of course people will buy has any quantity in circulation as we necessities with what they have. all prefer notes with a gold basis, If you are really hungry you'll give and there is practically no demand a handful of silver for its weight for the metal in any question. in rice or beans-and silver still has Indian silversmiths require a certain some value. amount, but the Government of India volunteers very little about what it is doing on the silver market. It certainly won't buy more to help us out!
"The ideal rate for Hong Kong is between 1/9 and 1/101, in my opinion. One needs that small fluctuation and the disadvantages of inflected value are of course obvious when you consider that we live on trade with the interior. But the present slump is hitting the Colony in every direction, and knows where the fall will end, especially as a lot more silver is on order and will be coming into the Colony shortly."
no one
Pressed on this point our infor- mant, entirely as a personal opinion, agreed that 1/6d. was the probable minimum.
GOLD BASIS IMPOSSIBLE.
Discussing the question of a gold basis it was pointed out that Hong Kong could not move ahead of China in that matter-" and as for Nanking talking of a gold basis, the thing is ridiculous. The cost has been worked out. It is a colossal figure, and in the present
of China's state
finances, and
general chaos, the thing simply
could not be done."
DISAGREEMENT WITH
MR. HYNES.
Our informant disagreed with the orinion of the Hon. Mr. A. C. Hynes, given in our columns on Wednesday, that China was glutted with silver, and that political and
2nd half..
1929 1928
Year's Average.
.1/9.13/16 2/0.5-32
1/10.11-16
2/0.7-32
T.T. Rates.
The average T.T. rate for the years 1901 to 1928 are as follows:-
1/11.15-16
1901
1/11.9.16
1902
1/8
1903
1/8
a
1904
1/10
1905
1/11룹
1906
2/18
1907
2/12
1908
1/93
1909
1/9
1910
1/9.9-16
1911
1/9.11-16
1912
1913
1/117
1914
1/10
1915
1/9.11-16
1916
2/18
1917
2/7.7-16
1918
3/2.13-16
1919
3/9.7-16
1920
4/3.11-16
1921
2/7.7-16
1922
2/6.1-16
1923
2/3.11.32
1924
2/4.7-16
1925
2/33
1926
1927
1928
1929
NOTES WITHOUT BACKING.
"The reason why the bottom is out of native notes, and has been for years, is that all the silver is in Shanghai, or some Concession, and the paper has no backing. But if we could get peace and security, then the country would need all the silver it could get. The thing would come slowly, but that is the back of it, the fall in the country's pro- ductive
and the lack of security."
power
THE DOLLAR'S HISTORY.
Messrs. Stewart Brothers have kindly supplied us with the follow- ing records of the fluctuations of the dollar and of bar silver.
2/2
1/11.29.32
2/0.7-32
1/10.11-16
Rates ruling on December 31 of
the following years:-
1908
1/81
1909
1/94
1910
1/10
1911
1/10
1912
2/03
1913
1/11.3-16
1914
1/91
1929 Movements.
1915
1/11
HONG KONG T.T.
1916
2/42
1/11
1/11 1/11
****
Months. Highest. Lowest. Average. January 2/01 February... 2/0 March April May June July August
1917
3/-
2/0
2/01
1918
3/4
1/11
1/11.13-16
1919
4/101
1/113 1/11
1/113
1920
3/11
1/113 1/11
1921
2/7
1/113 1/11
1/11.7-32
1922
2/21
1/11 1/10
1/10.31-32
1923
2/31
1/11.3-16
1924
2/31
1/11 1/11
1/11/
1925
2/48
September 1/11 1/10 1/10.29-32
1920
1/111
October..... 1/10 1/84 November. 1/8 1/81 December.. 1/8 1/73
1/9.9-32 1/83 1/7.15.16
1927
2/08
1928
2/01
1929
1/7
LONDON. Bar Silver
(ready) High- Low
est. Jan.... 26.7-16 26 Feb.... 26.5-16 258
Bank Rate of Discount. High- Low-
Silver and Exchange Rates From
1884 to 1929.
BAR SILVER IN LONDON.
Highest. Lowest.
est.
est. est. 41% 41%
1884
513
493
1895
50
467
51% 41%
1886
47
42