- 5 -
15%
8.
It is impossible to say what the upshot of
all the intrigues between the leaders of the various
Nationalist factions will be; but, if Marshal Chi ang
should succeed in disposing of the threat to his
domination from the Kwangsi group without recourse to
civil war, he will then still have to reckon with the
"Christian General". Marshal Chiang and Marshal Fêng
Yu-hsiang are both ambitious men. I do not believe
that either of them can be credited with patriotic
motives. Marshal Fêrg's army is superior to that of
Marshal Chiang, and it seems unlikely that the former
would willingly subject himself to Marshal Chiang as President of the Chinese Republic. On the other hand,
the power of the purse is at present with Marshal
Chiang. The threat of civil war, therefore, still
hangs heavily over China; and, of course, if there wete
an armed clash between the Nanking group and the
Kwangsi group, the situation in Hong Kong would again
become very tense and precarious.
9.
There
Meanwhile, as I write, the trouble between
Japan and the Nanking Government is still acute.
is also the fear of disruption in the Foreign
Inspectorate of Chinese Maritime Customs, which would be
a very serious matter for Hong Kong, as the Kowloon
Commissioner of Chinese Maritime Customs is actually
resident in this Colony. But for the moment I am
chiefly concerned to bring to your notice the fact that
the Kwangsi group of the Nationalist party, which under
the leadership of Marshal Li Chai-sum has shown real
friendship towards this Colony, seems now to be less
powerful than it was in the early part of last year.
10/