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declared the independence of Kweichow and hoisted the five-
Thereafter his assistance would be enlisted,
bar flag.
by payment of another subsidy, to help Tang Chi-yu, the
younger brother of the late Marshal Tang Chi-yao, to
subjugate Yunnan, and bring that province into the
Confederation also. This would mean that four provinces
would be in league together, namely, Kwongtung, Kwongsi,
Kweichow and Yunnan. After such an union it would be
easy to capture Fukien which is very sparsely garrisoned.
6.
Szechuan is a province in which there are now
about six or seven groups, each independent of the others.
It would be very difficult to reconcile all these conflicting
interests and bring them in line with the other provinces
named. But as soon as there is open conflict between
Chaing Kai-shek and Feng Yu-hsiang, Wu Pei-fu, with the
assistance of one of the more powerful groups in the
province, may succeed in composing the differences of the
various groups and bring them under his own authority.
In that event Szechuan would also join the Confederation,
making six provinces in all.
7. With these provinces united, the Navy in Shanghai
may also declare its independence of the Central Government.
Yen Shi-shan and Chang Hstieh-liang are sympathetic with the
objects of the Confederation, but they have made it known
that in the case of Yen Shi-shan, he would not move his
troops South of the Yellow River, and in the case of Chang
Hsueh-liang, beyond Shanhaikwan.
8. It must be admitted that the Confederation has no
real power at present, though it wields a great influence by
virtue of the names of its leaders, such as Marshals Tuan
Chi-jui, Wu Pei-fu and Sun Chuan-fang all good men.
this influence is increasing from day to day.
And
9.