6
present position on both these questions.
In the course of the discussion Admiral of the Fleet
Earl Beatty made a statement in regard to the effectiveness
of the sanctions proposed. He recalled that at the Meeting
at the House of Commons on April 4th (Cabinet 23 (27)
Conclusion 1), he, on behalf of the Committee of Chiefs of
Staff, had warned the Cabinet in regard to the adverse
effect on sanctions of any serious delay. The situation
had now changed considerably and this statement required
qualification. In view of the successes of the Northern
Chinese, the period of ten days he had then mentioned could
perhaps be considerably extended, but it had to be borne in
mind that if the Northern forces gained possession of the
places where sanctions were to have been inflicted, these
particular sanctions would no longer be applicable. More-
over, to take the proposed sanctions at the present moment
against such objects as forts or arsenals which were likely
in the near future to fall into the hands of the Northern
Chinese might merely have the effect of antagonising the
Northerners, who might becounting on utilising them for thei:
own purposes. If, on the other hand, the Southern Chinese
were to regain the ascendancy, it might be that the time
within which the proposed sanctions could be applied
effectively would be extremely limited, in which case,
either