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36,000, a British Consular estimate was 65,000, and an American
estimate 100,000. The Cantonese opposing forces are estimated by
the Japanese at 50,000, and by one of our Consuls at 35,000.
The equipment and fighting value of both forces are probably about
even. An attack by the Cantonese forces is anticipated within the
next two or three days. If they are successful it is calculated
that the Cantonese Army might reach Shanghai within 10 or 11 days
If the Indian Mixed Brigade is disembarked at Hong Kong,
where the landing facilities are not good, it would be necessary
to allow for a week before their arrival at Shanghai, or ten or
eleven days before they could be counted on to take up their
To reckon stations on the perimeter of the Shanghai Settlements.
upon a lower estimate would be to take risks. If the troops were
sent on without being disembarked, they should arrive within 2 days at Shanghai, and a day or two more would have to be
allowed for them to reach their stations.
Colonel Macnaghten, an officer with war experience who
was now a member of the Shanghai Municipal Council, had informed General milne that a force of three Brigades was required to
occupy the perimeter at Shanghai.
It was desirable that the troops should be on the spot a
few days before they were called upon to hold Shanghai, in order that the positions might be properly prepared and occupied, though it was understood that some wire had already been put in position.
In reply to a question as to whether, assuming that the Cantonese might arrive at Shanghai by the lath, it would be satis- factory from a military point of view if the troops now arriving at Hong Kong were disembarked there and then re-embarked with a view to being available to defend Shanghai on the above date, the Chief
of Imperial General Staff said "Certainly not."
One proposal put to the Cabinet was that a telegram
should be sent to Sir Miles Lampson informing him that His Majesty's Government were bound to take into account the Japanese and American apprehensions as to the effect on their nationals in
China