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In the through Feng Yü-hsiang and the Kuo Min-chun, Shensi and Kansu. south-west, Szechuan, under the divided authority of several local militarists, seems likely to tender nominal allegiance also to the Kuo Min-tang, but Yunnan, under its Governor, Tang Chi-yao, remains aloof. As regards the military situation, no serious hostilities are in progress for the moment, but the forces of the Northern alliance and the Kuo Min-tang are seemingly grouping themselves for a renewal of the struggle in the spring. Sun Ch'uan-fang has concentrated his army in Southern Kiangsu and round Shanghai, and for the moment still holds Chekiang as far as Hangchow, the provincial capital. The troops of Chang Tsung-chang have advanced down the Tien-tsin-Pukow Railway into North Kiangsu as far as Nanking and the Yang-tsze, and the Fengtien forces have pushed down the Peking- Hankow line to the Yellow River. Further south, in Northern Honan, the railway is occupied by the Wu Pei-fu's army. On the other side, the armies of the Kuo Min-tang are for the moment making no move, except possibly an advance by infiltration on the usual lines from Kiangsi and Fukien into Chekiang, and it seems that their counsels are divided as to the advisability of a serious attack at the present time on Sun's positions round Shanghai. În Central China they have pushed up to Ichang on the west, and along the railway to the mountainous country on the Hupei-Honan border to the north. Their allies, the Kuo Min-chun, with- drawn from the Suiyan-Paotou region into Kansu and Shensi, are pressing down from the latter province into Honan, thus threatening to take Wu Pei-fu in the rear. Feng Yü-hsiang is understood to be once more in supreme command of the Kuo Min-chun, whose operations he is understood to be directing from Eastern Kansu, and who have declared their political allegiance to the Kuo Min-tang Government at Wuchang.
12. Having only recently arrived at my post, you will hardly look to me for any very critical analysis of the political situation or the forces now at work. But so far as I have been able to come to any conclusion it is the following:-
The North stand for nothing but the individual aims of a group of militarists, each out for his own hand, though, for the moment, under the nominal orders of Chang Tso-lin, who is the most powerful of them. At the moment of writing there is not even a pretence of a Government at Peking, and the coffers of the National Treasury are completely empty. Nevertheless, the North are still a power to be reckoned with; they have very large military forces at their command, and with these they intend to meet and defeat the South. Whether they will be able to do this is another matter; and I have received indications from two well-informed sources during the past week to the effect that Southern propaganda is very active even here in Peking, and that, if the opportunity occurs, labour here also will play its part.
13. As to the South: Quot homines, tot sententiæ. But there can be no doubt that behind the Kuo Min-tang there is a national ideal quite different to anything behind the North, though the North would never admit as much. Unfortunately, for the time being, the Russians, and more especially Borodin, have a controlling influence over the South, and by means of labour appear to dominate the situation and the more moderate elements. From my conversations with Mr. Eugene Chen at Hankow I certainly drew the impression that he at least wished to come to terms with us--though possibly his terms would not have been such as we could accept. Events in the past few days have, however, confirmed the opinion of those who have held consistently that the Russians and the extremist wing of the party were deter- mined, if necessary by provocation, to prevent a settlement with us or, in the alternative, gradually to annul all the rights and vested interests which we possess. How far it may still be possible to deal with the South, in view of what has just occurred at Hankow, is very doubtful. We can only await the report of Mr. O'Malley, who left for Hankow on the 6th instant.
I have, &c.
MILES LAMPSON.