Apy. Original on
C.30009/27.C
China Siluakon Seul.
49
56
CYPHER TELEGRAM from the Secretary of State for the
Colonies to the Governor of Hongkong •
(Sent 12.55 p.m. 26th February, 1927.)
Your telegram 22nd February coercive measures
telegraph your further views in light of Foreign Office
telegram to Peking No. 149 of 21st February. It seems clearly premature to consider ultimatum to Nationalist
Government in respect of occurrences at Shanghai which is
not yet under their control. But supposing that if and
when Nationalists reach Shanghai same policy is followed
as at Hankow notwithstanding the assurances given and it
becomes clear that no settlement by negotiation can be
expected then the time may arrive when we may be driven
to consider the institution.of counter-measures. The
difficulty is to suggest any counter-measures which
would necessarily be decisive.
A pacific blockade even
if undertaken with the co-operation or consent of Japan
and America would not only carry no guarantee of success
but would almost certainly be ineffectual in view of ease
with which other channels could be found for trade and of
impossibility of interfering with shipping of other Powers especially Russia. On the other hand to block the
Canton and Yangt se Rivers and to declare a state of war
against the Nationalist Government might have the effect of uniting China against us and in view of the fact that China is essentially self supporting would do us more
harm than the Chinese who se internal trade would continue.
In either case the complete evacuation of the blockadel area
and the abandonment of British interests inland would
presumably