3 -
14.9
strong.
Admiral Pei Shu-ching is most likely going
to desert Chang Tsung-chang, for him, because the two
men have hitherto been enemies. And with Pei will
probably go over several other generals.
I fear that within three or four weeks Nanking
and Shanghai may fall into the hands of Chiang Kai-shek.
Even within Chang Tso-lin's own camp there are
-
two parties one headed by Yang Yu-ting and the other
by Wu Chun-shing. Yang favours a compromise with the
South so as to unify the country; but Wu advocates a
fight to the finish. Owing to the trouble with the men
under Wu Pei-fu's command, Chang Tso-lin finds his original
scheme very much upset, and is now unable to give to
Chang Tsung-chang the help he intended. Hence, the latter
is now in a very weak position, and is bound to fail as
Sun Chuan-fang has failed.
But Chang Tso-lin's own position is fairly secure
as, should he fight to the finish, he would have the strong
support of the party headed by Wu Chun-shing; and if on the
other hand he should compromise with Chiang Kai-shek, he
could count on the support of Yang Wu-ting's party.
It cannot be said that Chin Wun-ao and Yi Yik-san
have actually gone over to the South. The real position is
that the Southern Government, finding it convenient to
themselves to have these two generals' armies acting as a
buffer against Chang Tso-lin and Chang Tsung-chang, have
supplied them with money to fight them. There is more
likelihood of Chin and Yi, particularly the latter, coming
ander the banner of Feng Yu-hsiang when and if Feng goes
down to Chengchow. The Southern Government is making use
of Chin and Yi to hold up Chang Tso-lin's army and so to
enable Feng Yu-hsiang to come down by the Kiangsu-Haichow
Line. Should Chengchow be reached, the military situation
would