just returned, with the Soviet's blessing, from a visit to Moscow, also had to leave a few days after his arrival. All this pointed to a success for the Moderates, but the position has since changed. General Chiang had already dismissed the Moderate chief of police, and installed in his place a successor who was said to be more acceptable to the Communists and the Strike Committee. More recently Mr. C. C. Wu, the most prominent of the Moderates, who had been Minister for Foreign Affairs and Mayor of Canton, has also been dismissed, and it is likely that Sun Fo, Sun Yat-sen's son, will have to follow him. The new Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr. Eugene Chen, is a Communist, and is said to be the nominee of Borodin. the principal Russian adviser, although the acting consul-general finds him personally more frank and friendly than his predecessor, Mr. Wu. The extremists. indeed, at present seem to have matters all their own way. Their success is probably due to their having frightened General Chiang Kai-shek by threatening disturbances in his rear in the event of serious war with the North. On the other hand, the students, who, as elsewhere, have played a leading part as agitators, now show signs of weariness with politics and of a desire to get on with their interrupted work.
It will thus be seen that the only facts which emerge from the confusion are that the political situation is obscure and highly unstable, and that the strongest single factor in it is the influence of Chiang Kai-shek.
The nucleus of the Cantonese army was trained by Russians and is furnished by them with arms and ammunition, but the extent to which Russian influence controls Canton is difficult to determine. Borodin is said to be a man of ability and, rather surprisingly, not to be a Communist. It is certain, however, that the Russians have hitherto done their best to keep alive hostility towards the British Empire, and. in a lesser degree, towards the other "Imperialist" Powers. No Cantonese Govern- ment is at present likely to dispense with Soviet subsidies and munitions without some compensation. If we wish to see the Russians go, therefore, we must probably be prepared to do something for Canton ourselves, though our assistance might take quite a different form. In the past, for example, we have refused to allow Hong Kong to lend officers to Canton when asked to do so, but in future our attitude will require reconsideration, supposing the Cantonese request the loan of a technical officer.
The remaining factor to be reckoned with at Canton is the Strike Committee. Its main function is to ensure that no British goods, or goods which have touched Hong Kong, enter or leave Canton. Headed by a pork-butcher, it seems to be as powerful as the Government.proper. It has at its disposal a large force of uniformed strike pickets, some of them armed. It maintains a police service and courts of s own. The latter inflict severe forms of punishment on offenders against the strike regulations. It raises a large revenue by more or less open blackmail on shipping. passengers, merchants, &c., and by this means largely supports the strikers, who are, for the most part, employed on the construction of roads and other municipal services. It is difficult to estimate the total number of strikers or the proportion which originally came from Hong Kong. The number of Chinese who left Hong Kong for Canton at the commencement of the general strike in June 1925 was roughly computed at 250,000, but this figure included large numbers of ordinary A considerable residents, especially women and children of the middle class. proportion soon filtered back to Hong Kong, and, on the 5th February last, the Governor was able to state in the Legislative Council that the strike at Hong Kong had for some months been a thing of the past, and that almost the whole body of labourers was again at work. It is, of course, to the interest of the Canton Govern- ment, with negotiations in view, to put the number of strikers as high as possible. and it may be taken that the Cantonese estimates, which vary between 150,000 and 270,000, are exaggerated, and that in any event only a small proportion of those who originally left Hong Kong now remain in Canton. There seems no reason to doubt. however, that there is in Canton a considerable number of unemployed workers, who have been diverted by the strike and boycott from their normal occupations.
At present they are able to subsist on the strike funds and the charity of their families and relations. Incidentally, many of the strike officials contrive to make a very good thing out of the boycott, and these individuals are anxious that so profitable a business shall not be wound up. But the boycott once effectively ended. the source of revenue will dry up, and the Canton Government fear that a great mass of not immediately employable persons will be thrown upon their hands. This fact, and the necessity for "saving face," furnishes the explanation of Canton's hitherto unvarying demand for compensation as a condition of a settlement.
3
Much of the foregoing is necessarily vague and conjectural, but discussions with Sir J. Jamieson, His Majesty's consul-general at Canton, who is now in this country, recent reports from Mr. Brenan, acting consul-general, and a series of articles by two special correspondents, one a Polish Jew and the other by race a Cantonese, lately sent by the North China Herald" to investigate conditions at Canton, show that there is a very great measure of agreement between these observers upon various general aspects of the situation.
The outstanding facts, it is agreed, are that there is a strong element of genuine patriotism in the Cantonese national movement; that a standard of public morality and good government is aimed at, higher than has been seen in China before; and that, in spite of the most serious handicaps, a measure of success is attained. Apart from the activities of the Strike Committee, corruption has sensibly diminished, Civil officials, though they may hold several different posts, only draw one salary, and that not a high one, and often in arrears. Taxes are collected directly instead
of being farmed out, and accounts are strictly audited. As a result of sound financial administration the currency is in a comparatively strong position. The municipal administration of Canton
good, by any standard. The streets are unusually clean, and repairs and new building are being carried out.
The
The Cantonese, in fact, might succeed in imposing an efficient administration, not only on their own province, but even over a larger part of China, if they were not handicapped by two difficulties, for the first of which, it must be admitted, their own policy has been largely to blame, These are the demands of the strikers, on the one hand, and the exigencies of the military situation, on the other. activities of the Strike Committee have been shortly described above. The financial demands of the military authorities are even more fatal to successful government. Taxation is heavy, but the army absorbs between 70 and 80 per cent. of the whole revenue on the ground that its interests are paramount in view of the coming struggle with the North. Thus, any attempt at administrative development by the civil Government on a large scale is paralysed. For the time being, at any rate, the army exercises a disproportionate political influence, but it makes little effort to improve the state of affairs in the two provinces by keeping order. Bandits infest the country, even close to Canton, and piracy is still common. The Cantonese army has not as yet shown signs of taking the offensive in force. The latest press reports, on the other hand, attribute to Wu Pei-fu the intention of attacking Kwangtung himself as soon as he can.
II--Hong Kong-Canton Negotiations.
The anti-British boycott has been in force for more than a year. This boycott is not aimed solely at Hong Kong, though the colony bears the brunt of it. It extends to all British goods and all British ships and to all foreign goods or ships which come from or have touched British territory.
There have already been two attempts to reach a settlement. In December last, after conversations at Canton between high officials of the Hong Kong and Canton Governments, a delegation of Chinese merchants went from Hong Kong to Canton with the object of ascertaining by negotiation the amount of money which the Cantonese would be willing to accept for the termination of the boycott. At that time the Chinese merchants were afraid that the settlements due at the Chinese New Year (the 13th February) would involve them in a financial crisis, and they were prepared to pay heavily for the resumption of their normal activities. Owing. however, to the obstructive tactics employed by C. C. Wu, the delegation were effectually prevented from even initiating a discussion, and were compelled to return crestfallen to Hong Kong
At the end of March. at the invitation of the Canton Government. the Hong Kong Government agreed to the opening of negotiations between the two Govern ments. Each side appointed three delegates and preliminary conversations were held at Canton, But in the meantime the atmosphere had changed; the trade loan had resulted in a complete restoration of confidence in Hong Kong and the Chinese New Year had been successfully passed. An attempt to provoke a second general strike in Hong Kong had been a complete failure, and Russian influence was generally believed to be waning throughout China. Moreover, trade with North and Central China had much improved, and it had even been found possible by the use of various channels to do a certain amount of secret trading with Canton itself. In
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