I pressed the point that we were not deal-
ing with China, but with the intolerable situation at Canton. There seemed to be a real chance of giving the push that would overthrow the Reds. To this
it was objected that you cannot establish a friendly Government by force, and more important that we had no guarantee of the continuance of any new Government set up in Canton.
The Foreign Office are definitely opposed
to a blockade both on political and military grounds, and they support their view by reference to the C.I.D. papers in 0.8844 herewith, which point out military difficulties and throw doubt on the effectiveness of a blockade. I put the point that we could stop arms going in. Unfortunately the Foreign Office are satisfied that they cannot stop ships under neutral flags (the Russian flag included) without a declaration of a state of war. I quoted the Venezuelan precedent of some years ago, but Sir V.Wellesley was emphatic that in present conditions interference with American Japanese or Russian ships was out of the question. If this view is adopted by His Majesty's Government, then clearly it is useless to ask for a blockade. And the C.I.D's report that prior international agreement is essential to a blockade seems to bear the Foreign Office out. Such international agreement is most unlikely.
The Foreign Office views are embodied in a draft telegram to Pekin which they had already
prepared for submission tothe Prime Minister (Sir
Austen Chamberlain is still away). I asked for
further
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263
further reference to the Admiralty and War Office. The Foreign Office agreed, but were unwilling to delay the telegram though they will add a paragraph that the Admiralty and War Office are being further consulted on the C.I.D.'s reports and will arrange a conference at which we will attend. It can do no harm to hear what Sir R.Macleay and Sir C.Clementi have to say on the Foreign Office objections,
and
I presume we may telegraph to Hong Kong to ask the Governor's observations on the Foreign Office telegram which will be repeated to him from Pekin as the quickest method.
Sir R.Macleay's alternative of lifting the arms embargo in favour of one side does not directly concern Hong Kong. In any case it seems a very doubtful expedient.
It is very disappointing to see what looks like a chance slipping away, but if a blockade is not to be effective one can but agree that it would be worse than useless. You may wish to press for further consideration of the legal questions of international law involved when we get the replies from Hong Kong and Pekin.
GG. 17delt. 26.
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