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Far East must be China and Russia on land and on sea Great Britain with her naval bases' at Hong Kong and Singapore and her large overseas dominions in Australia and New Zealand. As regards Russia, under existing circumstances, he would not be afraid of any military or naval menace but rather of the insidious dangers of Bolshevik propaganda. As regards China he must realize that Japan has nothing to fear while the present conditions of anarchy and disruption continue, but that a powerful and united China, organised on modern lines, would completely dominate Japan by mere preponderance of numbers and of size. As regards Great Britain he would wish to weaken our position in China, and especially in Hong Kong, so that any naval threat from us might be pushed southwards as far as possible from the coasts of Japan.
3.
On land the interests of Japan and Russia come into closest contact in Manchuria and it seems to be not improbable that the three Manchurian provinces (Hei-lung-chiang, Kirin and Fang-tien) will under Marshal Chang Tso-lin break away from the rest of China and again form a separate nation. Japan would benefit by such an event, as her interests in Manchuria are considerable and it would obviously be easier for her to dominate that region if it were a separate country and not part of a gigantic Chinese nation. Japanese policy appears, therefore, to support Marshal Chang and to prevent either the Russian Soviet or the Chinese Kuo-min-tang from controlling Manchuria. Moreover, if Manchuria in isolation from China were under a strong ruler to become a powerful country, this again would inure to the benefit of Japan for Manchuria lies across the direct route from Siberia to Vladivostok and a Manchurian ruler, friendly to
Japan