(This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government.}
AFFAIRS OF CHINA.
CONFIDENTIAL.
[May 17.]
SECTION 1.
453
r
[F 865/865/10]
(No. 177.)
My Lord,
No. 1.
Mr. Lampson to Earl Curzon.-(Received May 17.)
Peking, March 25, 1920.
THE political outlook in China to-day is black as ever. The exchequer is in its usual state of emptiness, and there is no prospect of its replenishment so long as the resources of the country continue to be absorbed on useless military expenditure,
The present month has seen a determined attempt on the part of the Anfu Club, ie, the Japanophil Party, to drive the Premier from office. As ever in the case of Chinese politics the actual issues are obscure, but it seems fairly certain that the ultimate object was to oust the Premier, General Chin-yün-peng, and to install in his place some vassal of Tuan-chi-jui's; it is even currently believed that at the back of the whole intrigue was the desire to drive President Hsü from power with a view to the succession eventually falling to Tuan himself. A more direct challenge to the South would of course be difficult to conceive.
For several days the work of the Cabinet was suspended owing to the persistent refusal of three of its Anfu members to attend; but these three recalcitrant Ministers are now again attending office, and Premier Chin for the moment has weathered the storm.
This trial of strength between the Anfu Party and Tuan on the one hand and President Hsü and Premier Chin on the other has had a greater interest than that usually attaching to party intrigues in China. It has brought out with remarkable precision the existence of two distinct military parties in the North in addition to the main political parties. On the side of the President and Premier stand ranged the Military Governors of Fengtien and Chihli, with whom, for the time being at least, the three Yang-tsze Tuchuns, headed by the well-known Li Shun of Nanking, are allied. Opposed to them are Marshal Tuan and his satellite "little Hsü," who is now regarded as Tuchun-designate of Anhui in succession to the notorious Ni-shi-tseng, now reported on the point of death.
The actual issue that brought these rival parties into the field was an attempt to remove the present Military Governor of Honan, and to replace him by a nominee of Toan's. The attempt has failed, and for the moment the Anfu Club has had a distinct set-back.
It is
Altogether, apart from the considerable local interest attaching to their discomfiture, the matter has a wider importance from the point of view of world politics generally admitted that at the back of the minds of the Anfu politicians has lain the ambition of installing as Premier some creature of their own prepared to enter upon negotiations with Japan over the Shantung issue. As is well known, the present Premier is stoutly opposed to such negotiatious, and in this he is undoubtedly supported by public opinion. Hence the opposition of the Anfu Club.
At the moment of writing there exists a certain uneasiness in men's minds over the possibility of a clash between the two rival military parties of the North. Any such clash in the neighbourhood of Peking is, it seems to me, highly improbable. Tuan-chi-jui is complete master of the capital, where he has a considerable force at his disposal. The only person who could challenge him is Chang Teo Lin, Tuchun of Fengtien, who has at least ten divisións within easy reach and with ready means of access to Peking from the North. But I feel confident that Chang is not likely to try conclusions with Tuan. In the neighbourhood of Changsha, in Hunan, however, matters may be more complicated. I have heard it said that a clash is quite possible there between Chang Ching Yao, the Military Governor of the province, and a vassal of Tuan's, and General Hu Pei Fu who is an associate of the Yang-tsze Tuchuns. Movements of troops Converging on Changsha have been observed of late, and this may perhaps mean impending developments. I hasten to add, however, that in China it is seldom that movements lead to active hostilities. Actual warfare is too hazardous a business, and is, as a rule, limited to an exchange of lengthy and irate telegrams between the anders, and there the matter rests so far as the contending forces are concerned. [3215-
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