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It remains to be seen whether this step will reconcile the country to the acceptance of constitutional Government under an attenuated Manchu sovereignty, or whether the extreme party in the south, regarding it as a further sign of weakness, will insist upon the removal of the Manchus and the establishment of a republican form of Government. The prospect of an amicable settlement seems still somewhat remote, and an indefinite prolongation of the existing confusion is the fate which most people predict for China at the present moment.
I have, &c.
J
J. N. JORDAN,
P.S.-Since writing the above I have received a note from the Wai-wu Pu, enclosing copy of the edict, and requesting that it may be communicated to His Majesty's Government.
Enclosure I in No. 1.
Memoranda communicated to Sir J. Jordan, December 5, 1911.
J. N. J.
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but it may ultimately breed the anti-foreign tendency, and there is no guarantee that repetition of the Boxer rising may not be witnessed. Particularly, as the rigour of winter season sets in and that following after and coupled with the effects of the flood and bad crop, activity of brigands and disorderly actions of the new recruits have to be expected throughout all localities, and against this apprehension, it admits of no doubt that the ambition of the revolutionary annies to maintain order by force in the localities occupied is but a castle in the air. The present situation in China being such as set forth above, the Japanese Government have come to the conclusion that the time has arrived when the Powers having the principal interests in China can no longer keep aloof and remain mere observers, that it is of supreme importance that they should at once take appropriate measures to safeguard their interests.
In view of the above, the Imperial Government earnestly desire at this juncture to be apprised first of the views of His Britannic Majesty's Government regarding the situation in China as well as of the steps considered adequate, in the latter's opinion, for saving the situation. It is the wish of the Imperial Government to open consultations with the other Powers principally interested in China only after a full and candid exchange of views ami arrival at a common understanding thereby between the two Governments. As to inanner of negotiations and the extent of consultations, &c., it is intended the two Governments should enter into further consultation.
(A.)
(Strictly Confidential.}
THE Imperial Government had long since perceived the gravest nature of the present trouble in China, but have remained up to now only watching the developments of the situation, taking no particular steps in connection therewith, considering it best to devise appropriate measures based upon due observation of the development of the situation. Since, the situation has grown worse daily, prestige of the Mauchu Court has nearly fallen to the ground, while the Government authorities lack in resource as well as in integrity to meet the situation. Thus, the rebelliou and disturbances gradually extended to various regions, and at this moment there remain only a few provinces in the north over which the Central Government stili hold their authority. Yuan Shih- kai, in whom hope of saving the situation was placed, has shown almost nothing to justify such expectation since his entry into Peking; the situation even in the capital itself is proving very trying, so that the Powers have been compelled at last to see the necessity of angmenting their guards. Recent recovery of Hanyang had doubtlessly the effect of temporarily dismaying and discouraging the revolutionary army, but it should not be hastily concluded that this fact alters the entire situation. Supposing that the Government army had fortunately succeeded in regaining and subduing the whole district about Hankow and Wuchang in the future, the revolutionaries with- drawing from the region will not fail to create disturbances in the country at large, as seen in the case of Szechuan, aud it seems to be no hasty conclusion to state that it is well nigh hopeless for the Chinese Government to restore order solely by their own power and resource.
While the situation is such as set forth when viewed from and in connection with the Government side, on the other hand, the provinces, vieing, as it were, with one another in the race for declaring independence, are destitute of real capacity for autonomy, and the course adopted seems, after all, to be nothing more than a mere temporary expediency as a means of self-protection for avoiding conflicts with the revolutionaries. Turning to the revolutionary armies, it is to be noticed that they occupy different localities, each by itself; not only that there is no unity whatever among them, but it is even seen that in some localities the leaders nominated bave fled, while in other places dissensions among the leaders are constantly arising. Withal, throughout all localities gradually difficulty is being felt in meeting the military as well as adminis- trative expenditures, as the result of which in some of the places attempts at compulsory requisition are being resorted to. As regards the troops, majority of them are made up of new recruits, among whom even brigands and malcontents are included, which fact makes it a most difficult task to keep discipline and control over them, When time arrives that pay of soldiers is defaulted on account of the financial hardship, it is, in the light of past experiences in China, but clear that the soldiers will desert and join the rings of brigands. One or two cases of the foreigners subjected to outrage have already been reported, and if the disturbances are left to continue long, it is not likely to end only in jeopardising trade and commerce, which is of course a foregone conclusion,
(Strictly Confidential.)
(B.)
The subject of main discussions taking place in China at this moment is a question of expediency between the monarchical and the republican institutions. Nevertheless, the realisation of the republican institution is fundamentally in itself a matter of greatest difficulty for China, considering the peculiar condition of the country, nor could it be perceived from the actual state of affairs that she has had the necessary preparations for establishing such institution. Particularly, so long as the actual condition of the revolutionary armies remains such as has already been described, it has to be admitted In the meantime, it is also an that there is no hope whatever of such realisation. undisputable fact that the prestige of the Manchu Court had fallen beyond all hope of ever recovering its power and reuniting the country under the old régime. The actual circumstances of the case being such, it suggests itself to the Imperial Government that China can adopt no better course than to have the empty argument, far from actuality, abandoned on one hand, and, on the other, the evils of arbitrariness associated with the Manchu Court abolished, taking henceforth great care in respecting the rights of the Chinese; in effect, to carry on administration really by the Chinese, while preserving the unification nominally under the Manchu dynasty. Fortunately, the fundamental principles of constitution had been adopted, and on the 26th November the Prince Regent himself, representing the Emperor, had taken oath thereon before the Ancestral Temple, thereby declaring to the world the same as constituting the settled policy of the country.
Under the present circumstances, it is deemed necessary to devise means to carry on the administration of the country, generally conforming to the policy thus outlined.
In view of the above, the Imperial Government deem it best to adopt the following course of action: That the Manchu Court should be convinced of the advisability to secure the dynasty for ever by recognising the principle above set forth, while the revolutionary armies should be made to realise the presence of danger that their contention for republic may ultimately end in nothing better and more substantial than mere empty words, and thereby bring about the calamitous fate of imperilling the very existence of the State, resulting in the hardship and misery to the Chinese to no purpose. Upon such conviction and realisation both parties should be prevailed upon to meet each other half way and reach a compromise, and in the first place to lay down the arms. As regards the guarantee for the future, existence of the Manchu dynasty and respect due to the position of the Chinese should be secured by a concert of the Powers principally interested in China.
In case His Britannic Majesty's Government concur with the Imperial Government in the principle set forth, the time and manner of approaching the Powers having principal interests in China on the subject, as well as of proposing it to the Chinese Government and the revolutionary armies, shall have to be further cousulted upon between the two Governments. But, if it happens that either the lowers do not agree to the principle determined upon by the two Governments in common, or the Chinese
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