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The objects are being vigorously pressed by the papers and in public meetings. The Prince Regent and the Central Government are aiding and encouraging the
movement.
The basis of the enterprise is the anti-foreign spirit prevalent everywhere. In newspaper articles and in public speeches the feelings and fears of the people are being worked upon. They are instructed that their only safety is by some means to get rid of the foreigner. Though the objects of the societies seem patriotic enough and on the face deserving of all support, they are being exploited to bring to light the heinous sins of foreigners against China. They are all of them in their essence anti-foreign.
In
It
The Comet. Halley's comet is now again almost visible to the naked eye. China a comet is universally regarded as portending disturbances and disasters. presages commotion, bloodshed, and suffering. Coming as it does this year at the climax of these other movements, it will certainly excite men's minds and disturb the people. Demagogues will work its appearance to their own ends and will find ready audiences to believe all that is told to them.
All these things are bringing about a dangerous condition of affairs, and an outbreak of trouble appears inevitable.
There are present other conditions which make the position decidedly worse. I will indicate a few of them.
Chinese Finances. This subject has been referred to again and again in my correspondence. The Imperial Treasury and the provincial treasuries are all swept bare. The same cry comes from all alike, that there is no money to meet current requirements.
China's two most prominent officials have left large deficits. Chang Chih Tung, the trusted adviser of the Prince Regent, left a deficit of 4,000,000 taels; but out of regard to his memory the Prince Regent announced nothing was to be done against his memory or to affect his records in the matter.
Tuan Fang, recently degraded as a result of Palace intrigues, on flimsy pretexis, has also left a legacy of deficits at Nanking. The same is done in Manchuria, Kiangsu, and elsewhere.
The Government weakly yields to popular clamour and fears to negotiate foreign loans, and is at its wits' end to devise schemes of raising further taxes from the people.
The unsecured issue of bank notes goes merrily on. While I was in Hankow a further 2,000,000 of Japanese printed notes arrived. No exact returns are published, but it is believed by many that the issue of notes in the Liang Hu alone exceeds 100,000,000 dollars.
If a Chinese
It is stated the Treasury refuses to redeem for coin its own notes. presents himself with notes he is told to go away. If anyone refuses to take the notes the officials deal with him in such a way as to discourage others. The whole edifice built up on these unsound foundations will collapse and cause wide- spread ruin.
The condition of purely Chinese-managed railways, like the Hankow-Pcking Railway mentioned above, will in the future add to the Government's financial difficulties and create further serious problems.
Disaffection of the People.-New taxes are being levied and the burdens of the people are being steadily increased. There are murmurs of dissatisfaction from many quarters. The people recognise they are being bled on all hands, and have no recourse. The debased copper currency has increased the prices of all commodities and the people are becoming poorer. No steps in the shape of mining or otherwise are being taken in any effective or scientific ways to develop the country and provide new sources of wealth.
The Provincial Assemblies. The outstanding features of these assemblies is that they are anti-foreign in all their acts, and in so far as the Government are refusing to put real power in their hands, they are anti-officials. It is quite conceivable these assemblies will become centres of disaffection, and add still further to the problems of Government.
They are struggling for more power, especially over the national and provincial funds. The Chinese composing them differ not from their fellows, and it looks very much as if a new lot of men have sprung up who will require their share of the public plunder, and thus increase the already existing confusion.
The Loyalty of the Troops.-Doubts are expressed as to the loyalty of the troops in several quarters. I heard on good authority that the Government distrusts the loyalty
of the foreign-drilled troops in Nanking, and that no ammunition is ever served out to them. A large brigade of Northern Shantung troops has been brought down to Nanking. The general explanation of this unusual measure is that they are brought in as strangers from another province to overawe the local men.
In the recent Pingsiang outbreak troops from three or four provinces were brought in, so as to prevent any collusion on the part of the local men with the revo- lutionaries.
It is now reported that in order to save money the pay of all the troops in Wuchang is to be reduced. The pay is low enough already, and if it is finally decided to reduce the present pittance there will be vigorous opposition.
On the top of all the above China is cursed with a weak and divided Govem- ment. Were a strong ruler to appear who knew his own mind, who had a policy and who dared to execute it, the situation might be saved. The very opposite of the above is the case. The Prince Regent is weak, and does not seem to know what to do. The young Manchus and the concubines and Empresses are asserting themselves. There is therefore no clear-cut or vigorous policy, and things are allowed to drift. No Minister of State will himself assume any responsibility. The officials are eager to feather their own nests, and seem more corrupt than ever before. The prospects therefore are very far from bright.
As I travel round and discuss the question with one and another, I find that without exception every foreigner who has any experience and who has studied the situation agrees that it is fraught with extreme danger.
As things are now shaping, an outbreak cannot be avoided. year; in any case it cannot be long delayed.
It may come this
There is a feeling among many that Japan is fermenting this trouble for her own ends. A strong united China would in time mean the extinction of Japan, and to prevent this being accomplished is the object of Japanese statesinen. Should there be à recrudescence of trouble as in the Boxer year, a division of Japanese troops would be poured over into China. The end of such an occurrence no man can foresee,
We have an excellent Minister in Peking in Sir John Jordan, but of course he is powerless unless strongly backed and instructed by the home Government, There is a feeling among Britishers out here that the home Government do not fully realise the situation. If they are not fully prepared for coming events we as a nation will suffer in our policy and our trade.
EDWARD S. LITTLE,
January 15, 1910.
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